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000
FXUS64 KCRP 162113
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
413 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A quasi-stationary upper pattern is expected during the period,
yet with an upper low across the northern CONUS/southern Canada
Wednesday (deterministic NAM/ECMWF/GFS). In response, persistent
onshore flow is expected over the region. Although PWAT values
will remain above normal over the CWA during the period, strong
CIN will preclude surface-based convection over the Coastal
Plains/Victoria Crossroads. However, owing lower CIN values over
the western Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains (NAM deterministic
output), surface parcels may reach their respective LFCs late
Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Will forecast isoalted
convection over Webb/LaSalle counties for the 00-06z Thursday
period (although will probably occur in the 00-03z Thursday range).
Observations/spectral density at buoy 42019 (6ft/8s) swells and
weak to moderate onshore flow suggests a High risk of rip
currents. The WaveWatch suggests that swell periods may fall to 7s
Wednesday. Will upgrade from Moderate to High risk for tonight
and from Low to Moderate for Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Key Messages:

▶ There is a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across the Brush
Country Thursday.

▶  Cold Front This Weekend with a Medium chance (30-50%) of showers
and thunderstorms

During the long term period a quasi-zonal flow aloft and a few
mid- level lows/embedded shortwaves coming off the eastern Pacific
combined with our proximity to a surface boundary is expected to
provide enough instability and moisture to keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast daily until after the front comes
through the region.

A stalled surface front stretched across from west Texas northeast
towards OK at the begining of the period will approach our CWA
Thursday and will combine with several mid-level shortwaves bringing
a low (15-20%) chance for showers/thunderstorms across western
portions of the CWA. If storms form, some may become strong to
severe Thursday afternoon as upper level support exists in the
region but the lower-mid levels will be capped. As a result of the
conditionally unstable profile, SPC has most of South Texas under a
general thunder category with portions of our northwestern Brush
Country under a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms
where better dynamics exist. Low chances (<30%) for showers and
storms will continue as we head into the weekend.

A mid-level shortwave and reinforcing surge over the Central CONUS
will help drive the aforementioned front southward this weekend with
FROPA across South Texas expected Saturday night into Sunday
morning. There`s a moderate to high chance (50-75%) for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night as the front comes through, with
locales towards the northern border of our CWA having the best
chance for activity.

Low level temperature advection will lead to very warm tempertures
Thursday and Friday, especially out west under partly cloudy skies,
allowing afternoon temperatures to climb into the triple digits in
some places. Otherwise, highs generally range in the 80s through the
end of the week, then we dip into the 70s after the front to start
out next week, then it`s back into the 80s by Tuesday. Overnight,
lows will start out Thursday night in the 70s then will dip into the
low 60s/upper 50s Sunday night then warm back into the 70s by mid-
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings expected this afternoon/early
evening over South Texas. Predominate MVFR ceilings are expected
to develop overnight through Wednesday morning. Brief IFR
ceilings/MVFR visibilities may also occur during the 09-12z
Wednesday period, especially over the ALI and VCT terminals.
Generally weak to moderate onshore flow expected during the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Generally weak to moderate onshore flow expected tonight through
Wednesday night, given the quasi-zonal upper pattern over the
CONUS. Weak to moderate onshore flow will become northeasterly
and moderate Sunday after a front moves offshore. Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions are expected behind the front with
weak to moderate onshore flow returning by Tuesday. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead and along
the front with a moderate chance (45-60%) early Sunday dropping to
a low chance (20-30%) by Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  86  73  87 /  10  10  10   0
Victoria          72  86  71  86 /   0  10  10   0
Laredo            75  96  76  98 /  10  10  20  10
Alice             72  89  72  92 /  10  10  10   0
Rockport          72  82  72  82 /  10  10  10   0
Cotulla           74  94  74  97 /   0  10  20  20
Kingsville        73  88  72  89 /  10  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       73  82  73  82 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC/87
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...WC