Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 221746
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1246 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Key Messages:

- Areas of morning fog.
- Elevated Fire Weather western portions of S TX today.
- Moderate Rip Current Risk today.

Areas of sea fog along the coast are leading to visibilities less
than 1NM. Visibilities across the bays are currently not as low but
are expected to drop to less than 1NM. as well. A Marine Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect until 10 AM this morning. Across the Victoria
Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend, areas of fog will continue
through the morning hours with visibilities generally 1 to 3 miles
with occasional 1/4 mile at times. Clearing skies and light winds
across the Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend will be conducive
for fog to develop. If dense fog with visibilities 1/4SM develops
and becomes widespread, a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for
portions of S TX. The fog is expected to dissipate by mid morning.

Upper level low pressure currently over northeast TX, will continue
to shift east today leading to a northwest upper level flow across S
TX. Deep northwest subsident flow will bring drier and much warmer
conditions to the area through this afternoon. Temperatures are
expected to be around 10 degrees above normal values, but are not
expected to break any record highs today.

With much drier air filtering into S TX, afternoon RH values are
expected to drop to 15-20% across the Rio Grande Plains to 30-40%
across the inland Coastal bend. Critical fire weather concerns are
not anticipated as winds are expected to remain below thresholds.
However, winds above the surface are forecast to be 20-25kt and if
they are able to mix to the surface, then frequent gusts could cause
concerns. There is a low chance (<20%) that both RH values drop to
below 20% and winds increase to above 20mph. Based on an elevated
fire weather concern, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) will be issued
for this afternoon.

Weak cold air advection along with dry airmass and clear skies will
lead to cooler temperatures tonight. Fog is not expected tonight due
to a wider temp/dewpoint spread. Saturday will be pleasant with
highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies.

Buoy 19 has been reporting swells averaging around 8 seconds and has
increased swell heights averaging 4ft, which with an offshore flow
would lead to a low risk of rip currents. However, at times the
swells have been higher, thus have gone with a moderate rip current
risk for today. The swells are expected to diminish through the day.
A low rip current risk is expected tonight and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Key Messages:

-Breezy conditions are expected Sunday into early Monday with a 40%-
80% chance of wind gusts over 40 MPH

- There is a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms ahead of a cold front
over the Victoria Crossroads area Monday through Tuesday.

Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that a 500 hPa longwave
trough (characterized by minimum geopotential height anomalies less
than -3 sigma) will dig into the Southern Plains Sunday through
Tuesday. This trough will contribute to breezy conditions from
Sunday morning through late Sunday night due to a strengthening low
level jet and a tightening surface pressure gradient. Compared to
yesterday`s forecast, the chances of wind gusts over 40 mph
occurring on Sunday have increased slightly to 40-80%. The highest
likelihood for these higher gusts will be across the Coastal Bend
and Coastal Plains.

These southerly low level winds will advect Gulf moisture into South
Texas with ensemble mean PWAT values forecast to rise above 1 inch
(just slightly above the 50th percentile for this time of year) by
Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, southwest flow above 700 hPa will
advect warmer and drier air from the elevated terrain of Mexico over
South Texas. Ensemble soundings exhibit a stout elevated mixed layer
extending from 700-400 hPa by Sunday evening which will inhibit the
development of convection along a cold front that is forecast to
push through the region Monday afternoon. The most likely location
to see convection develop will be across the Victoria Crossroads at
the northeastern periphery of the elevated mixed layer and the
southern periphery of the increased mid-level support for ascent
associated with a Central Plains cyclone.

Ensemble guidance indicates that there is a medium chance that PWAT
will remain above 1" into Monday evening when a vorticity maximum is
forecast to rotate through the trough axis. Increasing differential
cyclonic vorticity advection combined with the lingering moisture
will support a 20-30% chance of precipitation Monday night.

High pressure is forecast to build in behind the surface cold front
which will contribute to dry and warming conditions during the
second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR conditions expected during the TAF period. Surface winds will
transition from weak to moderate northwest early this afternoon,
to generally north/northeast later this afternoon/early evening,
then generally weak northeast/east late tonight through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 AM this morning.
Visibilities generally less than 1 nautical mile can be expected
through the morning hours. The visibilities are expected to
improve through mid morning, however light patchy fog may linger
into the afternoon. Drier conditions are expected tonight and
Saturday. Weak to moderate offshore flow today will become
moderate tonight. Winds will become onshore Saturday and decrease
to weak to moderate levels. Onshore winds will increase
significantly Sunday morning and remain elevated through early
Monday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected with
a 30%-50% chance of wind gusts over 34 knots. A cold front is
forecast to push through the coastal waters late Monday morning
into the afternoon hours with winds gradually decreasing and Small
Craft Advisory conditions ending by Monday afternoon. Winds less
than 15 knots are expected during the middle of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions can be expected today across the
inland Coastal Bend to the Rio Grande Plains due to low relative
humidity between 15 percent across the west to 40 percent Coastal
Plains and gusty northwest winds up to 25 mph. A Fire Danger
Statement is in effect from noon to 8 pm. Winds are expected to
decrease this evening. Onshore winds on Saturday will increase the
humidity across South Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  58  76  62 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          81  55  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            92  58  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             89  56  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          82  60  74  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           89  56  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        89  56  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       84  62  74  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TWH
AVIATION...WC/87


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