Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 180830
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
330 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Key Messages:

- Weak cold front this morning leading to a cooler and breezy day.
- Occasional gusts to gale across the offshore waters today.
- Low (10-20%) chance of minor coastal flooding.

A weak cold front/surge of high pressure will bring cooler
temperatures and breezy north to northeast winds to S TX today. The
cooler, slightly drier air is beginning to filter into the northern
portions of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads this morning.
The surge of high pressure will continue southward through the
morning hours and is expected to reach the southern CWA between 10-
13Z.

North to northeast winds will be strongest across the Coastal areas
with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. Winds will be strongest across
the marine zones and there is a low to medium (10-30%) chance of
gusts to gale force, mainly across the offshore waters.

An upper disturbance and sufficient mid/upper level moisture will
bring a slight chance to chance (10-50%) of mainly showers to the
area. A few thunderstorms will also be possible given some mid level
instability. The better chances for convection will be along the Rio
Grande Plains where PoPs are up to 50%. Chances range from 20-35%
across the Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend. The Victoria
Crossroads is the least likely to have precipitation today with PoPs
<15%. Rain chances end by this evening as weak upper level ridging
builds across the region.

Although winds strengthen today, RH values will remain elevated due
to the cooler temperatures, thus fire weather concerns are low.

Mostly cloudy skies will continue across most of S TX today,
however, Highs will be in the 60s both today and Tuesday with lows
in the upper 40s to mid 50s most locations tonight.

Strong northeast winds and large seas developing across the gulf
waters today will likely lead to elevated tide levels. The
uncertainty is just how high the tides will get to. The PETSS shows
tides up to 1.5 MSL during high tide this afternoon, which is
typically not impactful. However, the energy from increasing swell
periods and seas may help to push the water up to the dunes during
high tide. Will continue to monitor trends for possible minor
coastal flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Key Messages:

-Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday Night into Thursday

- 40-50% Chance of Sea Fog Wednesday evening


The period will begin with moisture returning to the region
Wednesday as a surface high pressure shifts eastwards. This will
increase our dew points back into the upper 60s along the coast and
in the coastal waters by Wednesday afternoon/evening. Sea surface
temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s during this time.
Winds should be around 10 knots therefore, a chance will exist for
sea fog to develop along the coast and nearshore waters. NBM
ensembles were in agreement with this and portray a 40-50% chance.
The upper level low that has been parked over the Four Corners
region will finally be on the move Wednesday. It will send our next
cold front through the area while PWAT values are expected to
increase to above normal values ahead of the front. Models
(GFS/ECMWF) indicate the presence of instability to go along with
the upper forcing in the area from the front. As a result of these
components, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist
beginning late Wednesday night into the day Thursday. The west could
see the 90s by this weekend. A surface high move into the area in
the wake of the front Thursday. High temperatures are expected to
warm by Friday back into the lower 80s to upper 80s out west. As the
surface high shifts eastwards early next week, the gradient will
tighten over the area which will increase our winds over the waters.
This will create the potential for SCA conditions in the latter half
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

A mix of MVFR and VFR CIGs currently across S TX this evening are
expected to become generally MVFR area wide overnight. CIGs are
expected to improve to VFR by mid to late Monday morning. A surge
of high pressure/frontal boundary, with slightly drier low levels
and gusty northeast winds, is expected to push south across S TX
between 08Z-12Z. NE winds will strengthen behind the boundary
with gusts around 25 knots. Gusts to around 30 knots will be
possible across the CRP TAF site due to proximity to the coast. As
for rain chances, the highest chances (30-50%) are across the LRD
and ALI areas overnight ahead of the boundary into Monday behind
the boundary. There is a slight chance (10-20%) across the
remainder of S TX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A cold front this morning will bring strong northeast winds to the
Middle Texas Coastal Waters today. Occasional gusts to gale force
will be possible, mainly across the offshore waters. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect today through tonight. Isolated to scattered
showers are possible, mainly this morning. Winds will decrease
overnight, becoming weak to moderate by Tuesday morning. Weak to
moderate northeast winds can be expected through Tuesday
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday.
There is a chance (40-50%) for sea fog to develop Wednesday
afternoon/evening. An upper level disturbance will contribute to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday.
Drier conditions expected Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow
expected Wednesday. Generally weak winds Thursday and Friday.
Moderate to strong flow is expected early next week. This will
likely warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    69  54  66  57 /  30   0   0   0
Victoria          68  47  63  52 /  10   0   0   0
Laredo            64  54  67  58 /  50  10   0  10
Alice             66  51  65  54 /  30   0   0   0
Rockport          71  55  67  58 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           62  50  62  55 /  20   0   0   0
Kingsville        67  54  66  56 /  30   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       70  59  68  60 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232-
     236-237.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...TE


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