Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
000
FXUS64 KCRP 172310
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
610 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
A Boundary continues its southward march through our CWA and
should move offshore by tonight. This boundary resulted in some
overnight and morning convection where one cell over La Salle and
McMullen split before becoming severe with a report received of
Golf ball sized hail. Otherwise, it`s been mainly quiet today and
that is generally expected with some isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms remaining possible again tonight through
Monday. The probabilities across most of the area will be small
with silent PoP`s except for the Rio Grande Plains where there`s a
medium (35-50%) chance for convection through tomorrow
morning/afternoon.
Increased gradients after the boundary moves offshore will result in
Strong to Very Strong northeasterly flow. A Small Craft Advisory has
been issued for tonight through tomorrow and tomorrow night over
the waters.
Hazards: Strong thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight with hail
as the main threat. Small Craft Advisory.
Temperatures: Afternoon highs today will be near 80, with mid to
upper 60s tomorrow. Overnight lows tonight will approach 60 degrees
and tomorrow will be around the low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Key Message:
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday
A mean upper trough is expected to persist over the Midwest/
northeastern CONUS Tuesday/Wednesday, while the cut-off low over the
southwestern CONUS finally moves across the region Wednesday
night/Thursday, per the GFS/ECMWF. In addition, the GFS/ECMWF
predict PWAT values to increase to above normal over the CWA by
Wednesday. Expect the combination of moisture, instability, and
upper forcing to contribute to isolated to scattered convection
Wednesday night and Thursday. As the upper disturbance moves east of
the CWA, drying/subsidence expected Friday/Saturday, with near to
below normal PWAT values. Increasing onshore flow/moisture expected
Sunday, in advance of another upper disturbance approaching the
southwestern CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
A mixed bag of ceilings are in place across the region as VFR has
just returned to ALI/CRP/VCT. Meanwhile, COT/LRD are still
experiencing IFR/MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions will likely not
last too long as MVFR is expected to return between 02-04Z. A
frontal boundary will move through overnight which will help
improve conditions. VFR is expected at COT/VCT by mid morning and
by ALI/CRP/LRD by mid day. North-northeasterly winds will increase
through the morning hours in the wake of the front with gusts from
20-25 knots possible through late Monday afternoon.
The majority of the CAM guidance keeps isolated showers across all
terminals through the morning hours tomorrow. As a result, kept a
mention of VCSH in through mid day. With that said, opted for a
brief period of -SHRA at LRD as our chances are better.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Flow has veered to the northeast and is expected to increase to
Strong or Very Strong in response to a boundary moving offshore.
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for tonight through
tomorrow and into tomorrow night over the waters. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible offshore
through tomorrow afternoon. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected
Tuesday/Wednesday in advance of upper disturbance approaching TX
from the west. This upper system is expected to contribute to
isolated/scattered convection Wednesday night/Thursday. Drier
conditions Friday/Saturday as the upper disturbance moves east of
the region, followed by the return of onshore flow Sunday in
advance of the next upper level disturbance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 61 69 55 66 / 10 20 0 0
Victoria 58 68 48 62 / 20 10 0 0
Laredo 59 64 56 66 / 40 50 0 0
Alice 59 69 53 65 / 10 20 0 0
Rockport 61 72 56 66 / 10 10 0 0
Cotulla 58 66 53 64 / 10 20 0 0
Kingsville 60 67 54 65 / 10 20 0 0
Navy Corpus 62 71 59 68 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for GMZ231-
232-236-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
GMZ250-255.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for
GMZ270-275.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....WC
AVIATION...TC/95