Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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082 FXUS65 KCYS 080505 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1105 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds continue today and tonight for southeast Wyoming, but will be lighter compared to Monday. Wind-prone locations will still see wind gusts 60-70 mph. - Cool and unsettled weather continues for Wednesday and Thursday with a warming trend headed into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 715 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Strong winds starting to diminish across the area outside of the wind prone areas this evening. Will keep the High Wind Warning going for the next hour since a few wind reports of 60 mph have been observed since 4 PM, but will likely expire the Warning outside of the wind prone areas on time, at 9:00 PM local. Otherwise, forecast for tonight looks on track with clearing skies further south along I-80 and mostly cloudy skies with some shower activity up near Douglas, Lusk, and the northern Nebraska Panhandle. Temperatures near or a little below freezing are expected, especially along the I-80 corridor tonight and early Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Strong winds continue this afternoon...though nothing near what we were experiencing 24 hours ago. Still getting reports of 50-60 mph gusts from area UPR sites and ASOS METARs. WYDOT observations are still unavailable for the most part. Believe we are in a lull on winds as Craig to Casper 850/700mb height gradients continue to slowly decrease. No plans to change any wind headlines at this time. Guidance continues to show the vertically stacked low over South Dakota beginning to retrograde back to the northwest after 00Z...resulting in increased height gradients this evening. In house WRKHGT high wind guidance shows 850mb height gradients increasing to 86 mtrs/700mb height gradients increasing to 66 mtrs after 00Z. This will likely be enough to increase winds once again this evening...especially in the wind prone areas. The stacked low begins to drift south Wednesday morning with a secondary vort lobe dropping down into the CYS CWA Wednesday late morning through the afternoon. Would envision increasing chances for precipitation as this takes place and have raised PoPs across the CWA into the 70-80 percent range. This slow moving trough looks to linger around through Wednesday night/Thursday morning before the entire trough drops south into Colorado Thursday afternoon. After this takes place...look for decreasing chances for PoPs during the evening hours. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 The long term will see a return to warmer and drier weather beginning on Friday. The low pressure center responsible for all the windy weather in the beginning of the week will slowly retrograde back westward over the Four Corners region and stall for several days. This will keep the unsettled weather further south in Colorado and New Mexico, allowing the CWA to finally warm up and dry out. Despite the upper-level low swirling to the southwest, ridging will gradually occur over western CONUS as that low weakens and eventually gets pushed out into Texas by the end of the weekend. Due to the gradual strengthening of the ridge, high temperatures will also gradually increase through the beginning of next week. Expect near-average temperatures on Friday as sub-freezing 700 mb temperatures push eastward with the trough over eastern CONUS. Temperatures warm 5 to 10 degrees on Saturday as we see the return of above 0C 700 mb temperatures. Highs will be a few degrees above average, with sunny skies making for a pleasant day! Temperatures continue to warm into Sunday and Monday as the upper-level low over the Four Corners region finally erodes, allowing for full ridging to take effect. Again, looking at above average highs for both days, with temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s! Most of the long term will see dry conditions, as subsidence under the ridge allows for mostly sunny skies. Monday, will be the exception. An embedded weak shortwave within the ridge could spark scattered thunderstorms across the CWA. GFS soundings do show decent amounts of CAPE in the panhandle, so would not be surprised if a few storms produced 50 MPH gusts or small hail. Looking further into next week, it looks like the unsettled weather could continue with daily chances for storms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1105 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 The main closed upper level low over North Dakota will slowly shift south into the northern Nebraska during the next 24hrs. This will result in more gusty winds tonight across all TAF sites. These winds will shift more to the northwest early late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon along with a weak frontal boundary. This frontal boundary will bring some afternoon cloud cover around 4-6kft and a few light rain showers. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Wednesday for WYZ106-110-116. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...TJT SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...REC