891
FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decayed to low levels. Region 3654 (S07W36,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced c-class events this period, the largest a
C8.3/Sf flare at 28/2020 UTC. Region 3654 exhibited moderate development
in the intermediate and trailer spots, and developed a delta magnetic
configuration. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 29-30 Apr and 01 May
with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over 29-30 Apr and 01 May. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 29-30 Apr
and 01 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was at mostly steady levels this period due
to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a
peak of 8 nT and the Bz component was varied between +/-5 nT. Solar wind
speeds were mostly in the mid 400s. The phi angle was in a
predominantly positive orientation through the period.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 29-30 Apr and 01 May due
to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity associated with
multiple CMEs that are expected to pass in close proximity to Earth over
the next few days.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field decreased from active early in the day to quiet
levels from 28/0300 UTC onward.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to unsettled
levels on 29-30 Apr, and quiet to active levels on 01 May due to the
anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient
influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days.