015
FXXX12 KWNP 271231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity declined to low levels this period with only C-class
flare activity observed. Region 3654 (S08W16, Ehi/beta-gamma) remained
the largest region on the disk and exhibited moderate development in the
intermediate and trailer spots. Region 3657 (S15W25, Bxo/beta) reemerged
with a few rudimentary spots and new Region 3660 (N10E71, Axx/alpha) was
numbered. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 27-29 Apr with a
chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over 27-29 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to persist at background levels over 27-29 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was enhanced due to likely CME activity early
in the period, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 17 nT and the Bz
component was sustained southward through the first half of the period,
with a peak deflection of -11 nT observed. During the latter half of the
period, the Bz component rotated northward with only brief southward
deflections observed. Solar wind speeds were steady between 300-350 km/s
until 27/0230 UTC, when speed values slowly increased to a period high
of around 550 km/s. The phi angle transitioned from negative to positive
at 26/1502 UTC.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 27-29 Apr due to CH HSS
influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs
that are expected to pass in close proximity over the next few days.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels this
period.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels on 27-28 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Apr, due to the
anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient
influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A
chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods exists on 27-28 Apr should these
features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz.