000
FXXX12 KWNP 270031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity declined to low levels. Regions 3638 (S18, L=231), 3639
(N30W90, Axx/alpha) and 3647 (S13, L=217) produced C-class flare
activity during the period, the largest a C6.6 at 26/0636 UTC from
Region 3639. Region 3654 (S08W08, Eai/beta-gamma) remained the largest
region on the disk, but was quiet. The region did indicate some slight
area decay. Minor development was observed in Region 3658 (S23W60,
Dro/beta). The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

.Forecast...
Moderate levels of solar activity are expected on 27 Apr, with
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and a slight chance for
an X-class flare (R3/Strong). Solar activity is expected to be low to
moderate with M-class flare activity likely on 28 Apr decreasing to a
chance on 29 Apr as the cluster of complex regions rotate around the SW
limb.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels,
while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background
levels.

.Forecast...
There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) storm levels on 27 Apr due to the flare potential
and location of multiple active regions. The 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to be at background levels on 28-29 Apr. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 27-29
Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions became weakly enhanced at around 26/0018 UTC.
Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 13 nT at 26/1510 UTC,
while the Bz component was sustained southward most of the period, by as
much as -11 nT 26/1250 UTC. Solar wind speed peaked at 387 km/s at
26/0116 UTC and slowly decreased to low speeds near 305 km/s near the
end of the period. The phi angle was predominately negative through
about 26/1500 UTC when the orientation switched to positive.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 27-29 Apr due to CH HSS
influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs
that are expected to pass in close proximity over the next few days.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels on 27-28 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Apr, due to the
anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient
influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A
chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods exists on 27-28 Apr should these
features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz.