Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS63 KDVN 271930
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
230 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds are expected to be light tonight and Thursday.

- Mild late week and into the Easter weekend.

- Showers likely Friday night and again by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Tonight, rather benign conditions will be seen as high pressure
settles in from the northwest. Winds will finally subside with light
and variable winds by late evening. Skies will be generally clear
with some mid level clouds overnight. Low temperatures will once
again be in the lower 20s NW to upper 20s south of I 80. The degree
and longevity of any cloud cover may keep temperatures slightly
warmer. Some models hint at some precip (mainly flurries)
skirting through the area near I 80 late tonight with some weak
upper level waves aloft in cyclonic flow, but opted to keep the
dry forecast going.

Thursday, there will be a mix of sunshine and some clouds as the
ridge of high pressure remains over the area. Winds will be light
from the west and southwest. Highs will range from the upper 40s
and lower 50s north of I 80, to the upper 50s and low 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Friday: Upper low in the northern Great Lakes region pushes
into Quebec, allowing for a return of a zonal flow. This will
bring milder temperatures into the forecast area, with highs in
the mid to upper 50s along Highway 20 to the mid to upper 60s
elsewhere.

Friday night: A disturbance in the zonal flow will bring a round of
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. The gulf moisture is just
being drawn northward so there is the potential for some spots to
receive 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain.

Easter weekend: Continued rather mild with highs mainly in the mid
50s to mid 60s. However, confidence in chances for rain is low as
the GFS is dry, while the ECMWF brings in some rain Easter Sunday.

Early next week: Confidence is higher as both global models
indicating another large/slow moving storm system (typical of early
spring). This looks to be another widespread soaking rain and a few
thunderstorms. The ECMWF/GFS has shifted the surface low farther
south into central MO which should keep the threat of severe weather
south of our forecast area. However, being still several days away
the track of the low and strong warm front could still change. As of
now, the NBM has a nice temperature gradient across our area, with
highs only around 50 along Highway 20 to the mid 60s south. Then
only in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Tuesday areawide.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A scattered to,
at times, broken cumulus field will be possible through the
afternoon. Ceilings are near 3k FT AGL, thus some MVFR
conditions will be possible in some areas. DBQ has a 2900 ft
ceiling with upstream cu field filling in with cigs 2800 to 3400
ft. Opted to keep MVFR cigs at DBQ into mid afternoon.
Elsewhere, scattered cu above 3k FT AGL are expected. West winds
may still gust over 20 KTS through the afternoon, with light
and variable winds beginning this evening.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...14


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.