004
ACUS01 KWNS 030106
SWODY1
SPC AC 030104

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS/THE BIG COUNTRY SOUTH TO THE CONCHO VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to isolated severe storms will continue this
evening, primarily from western North Texas into the Concho
Valley/central Texas area.

...Parts of northern and central Texas...
While isolated strong storms -- a few possibly/occasionally reaching
severe levels -- remain possible from Oklahoma northeastward to the
southern Upper Great Lakes region in the vicinity of the cold
frontal zone, the greatest severe risk will remain across portions
of northern and central Texas.

A handful of severe/supercell storms are ongoing from western North
Texas south to the Concho Valley, with a warm sector bounded by a
cold front on the northern fringe, and a dryline on the west.  While
noted veering of the flow with height exists across this area,
magnitude of the flow remains somewhat limited.  Still, given the
strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE near 3500 J/kg), the
CAPE/shear combination will continue to favor organized/supercell
storms over the next few hours.  Eventually, some upscale growth of
convection may occur, though an only modest low-level jet expected
to evolve this evening may preclude development of a well-organized
MCS.  In the meantime, very large hail and locally damaging wind
gusts remain possible, along with a tornado or two.

..Goss.. 05/03/2024

$$