140
ACUS03 KWNS 140730
SWODY3
SPC AC 140729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across north and central
Texas on Thursday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible
across portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward
across the Southwest/northern Mexico and through the southern Plains
on Thursday. Strong mid-level flow will likely exist throughout the
base of this trough, spreading eastward across TX and into the Lower
MS Valley ahead of the wave. Favorable low-level moisture (i.e.
dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) is expected to advect northward
across TX throughout the day. Given this low-level moisture, strong
buoyancy is expected to develop across areas that experience ample
daytime heating. This currently looks most likely from the Low
Rolling Plains/Big Country TX into Hill Country/central TX, with
more uncertainty farther north (from the eastern TX Panhandle into
western/central OK) due to influence of Wednesday night`s
thunderstorms.

Late afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated, with the
combination of airmass destabilization, increasing large-scale
ascent, and low-level convergence supporting initiation. Strong
buoyancy and shear will support an initial supercell mode and robust
updrafts capable of large to very large hail. Quick upscale growth
appears probable, with the resulting convective line pushing
southeastward across central and southeast TX. Elevated
thunderstorms may precede this convective line from east/southeast
TX into southern LA, and a few of these storms may acquire updrafts
strong enough to produce hail.

...Mid MS Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the region
early Thursday morning before continuing northeastward and
weakening. Heating in the wake of this early morning activity is
expected to result in limited convective inhibition and moderate
buoyancy by the afternoon. Convergence along a weak cold front and
associated frontal low may result in thunderstorm development. An
outflow boundary from the morning storms may also exist, providing
another area for low-level convergence and storm initiation.
Moderate westerly flow aloft could support a few stronger storms
capable of large hail, damaging gusts

..Mosier.. 05/14/2024

$$