Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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494 FXUS64 KEPZ 281708 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1108 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 228 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The Borderland region will see some relief in the coming days from the winds we`ve been seeing over the pass several days. Quiet weather conditions, plenty of sunshine, and warming temperatures will be the theme as we progress through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Overall, no changes from previous forecast packages with quiet weather conditions and cooler than normal temperatures today and Monday (near normal temps on Monday). Quiet weather will be the theme through the week, along with warming temperatures backing into the upper 80s and low 90s by midweek. Yesterday`s storm system will continue progressing north and east with north/northwest flow aloft in it`s wake over the Desert Southwest. This means quiet weather conditions and cool temperatures for today and tomorrow. High temperatures this afternoon will struggle getting out of the 70s, with back to near normal temperatures on Monday. Winds will be light to low-end breezy each afternoon. Upper level flow regime will become zonal by midweek. An upper level system will pass well off to our north over the Northern Rockies by Wednesday into Thursday. This will promote a slight uptick in our winds locally, becoming generally breezy. Temperatures by Wednesday and onward will hover right around the 90 degree mark for El Paso and Las Cruces metros. By Friday and into the weekend, models continue to hint at the approach of the dryline from the east. Still a bit of uncertainty with this, as whether or not it will reach the Rio Grande Valley. As of now, a very minimal chance for thunderstorms will exist locally, predominately over the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County. Ensemble trends will need to be monitored in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Other than FEW-SCT200 passing by during the day across northern areas, mainly SKC expected. Some gusty winds near 20kts expected this afternoon from the W, subsiding this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 228 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Fire weather conditions will be LOW (today) to low-end ELEVATED (Monday) with light winds and critically low Min RHs each afternoon. Continued dryness with an uptick in winds by midweek, with ELEVATED fire weather conditions expected over the mountains and ELEVATED to CRITICAL fire weather conditions over the desert lowlands on Wednesday and Thursday. Models continue to hint at the approach of the dryline from the east late next week, possibly reaching the Rio Grande Valley next Friday/Saturday. This would suggest at least a very minimal chance for thunderstorms locally. Ensemble trends will need to monitored in the coming days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 79 55 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 73 50 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 79 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 74 46 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 52 35 58 41 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 76 49 81 52 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 68 43 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 77 44 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 74 44 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 77 53 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 78 44 85 47 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 79 48 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 71 49 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 79 49 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 76 46 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 77 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 76 44 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 79 45 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 76 49 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 74 47 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 66 40 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 63 38 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 62 37 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 69 40 76 44 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 74 44 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 75 44 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 69 38 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 71 40 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 75 43 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 71 44 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 71 44 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 75 44 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 75 45 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 76 45 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 70 46 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson