Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 230831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHORT TERM ISSUES INVOLVE PRECIP COVERAGE WITH UPPER LOW/SFC LOW THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING THE SFC
AND 500 MB LOW WAS NAER THE BLACK HILLS. BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS THEN WEAKENING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BEFORE SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SYSTEM INTO SE ND THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTN ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. WITH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING AND THICKEST IN THE SE ND EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THAT AREA (UPPER 60S-AROUND 70)...WHILE
THE REST OF THE REGION SEES MAINLY MIDDLE 70S.

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT
850-700 MB MOISTURE PRESENT JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS...BUT AMOUNTS LIGHT. NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS (BACK TOWARD GRAND FORKS) VS THE OTHER MODELS
WHICH MAINTAIN THEM MORE SO FAR SE ND INTO NCNTRL MN. GFS REMAINS
DRIER THAN OTHER MODELS TOO. ALL IN ALL 20-30 POPS FOR MEASURABLE
STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. LIKELY SPRINKLES WILL REACH A BIT FARTHER
WEST THAN POP AREA AND THIS CAN BE ADDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
UPPER SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTH CENTRAL MN WED AFTN WITH CLEARING
MOVE INTO ERN ND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WED NIGHTH WILL SEE THE SYSTEM PULL EAST AND CLEARING TO PROGRESS
THRU NRN MINNESOTA. 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS AS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
INTO THE NRN PLAINS WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPR
TEENS AT 850 MB. THUS IDEA OF 80 TO 85 FOR HIGHS ESP NW FCST AREA
SEEM REASONABLE AS THIS AREA CLOSEST TO WARMEST AIR. 75-80 SOUTH
AND EAST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FEATURE.

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT BY SUN...BUT HINT AT A VIGOROUS S/W CROSSING
THE REGION. MOST OF THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NRN PART OF
THE AREA...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT JUST OVER THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE NORTH. BEHIND THE
WAVE...THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND LOW
POP CHANCES THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.




&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SKC CONDS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASING BY NOON TUESDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER W CNTRL MN
TOMORROW EVENING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR...ALTHOUGH 00Z MOS GUIDANCE DOES BRING IN MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE FOR CIGS IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FT RANGE WILL BE FAR AND LATER
BJI...WITHIN THE LAST 6 HOURS 0F 06Z TAF PERIOD...AND CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT IS LOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER





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