Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 300900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO WRN KANSAS WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS
DROPPING SOUTH THRU NW ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. IN BETWEEN IS
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WITH THE CENTER OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND HIGH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE OUR EAST TO NORTHEAST
SFC GRADIENT. AS LOW IN NEBRASKA IS CLOSER TODAY SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS A BIT TIGHTER AND THUS SFC WINDS TODAY A BIG HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THINNING OUT AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SRN ND. OUTSIDE OF
SOME CIRRUS...MAINLY IN THE SRN FCST AREA...LOTS OF SUN TODAY.
TEMP PROFILES SHOW PERHAPS A TAD COOLER 925-850 MB LAYER SO HIGH
TEMPS TODAY MAY COME SHY OF WHAT THEY WERE ON FRIDAY.

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AS THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST SUNDAY LOOK FOR BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A LESS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS LIGHTER
WINDS SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

500 MB RIDGE STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
MONDAY AND MILDER SFC-850 MB AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH WEST WINDS.
QUITE MILD WITH AFTN HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 70S OVER NRN ND AND
INTO A LARGE PART OF WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF
DO PAINT A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN OUR WARM ADVECTION REGIME VS THE
GFS/GEM. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
TO 500 MB OR HIGHER.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE RIDGE IN
WESTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH DAY 5 THEN DE-AMPLIFIES
THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST AND MOVES
INTO CA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ECMWF WAS THE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.
WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUE, THU AND FRI. A DEGREE OR
SO HIGHER FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY A BIT OF
CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
TOMORROW TO GUST ABOVE 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.