Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281144
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. PCPN HAS BECOME VERY
LIGHT SO THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING MOST OF IT. COULD REALLY GO
WITH DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
WORDING FOR NOW. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DEVILS LAKE REGION WHERE SOME FLURRIES COULD EVEN
BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE ALSO PICKING UP AND IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WINDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES/PCPN TYPE AND TEMPS. AS
OF EARLY THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS QUITE THICK ACROSS THE FA.
THIS WAS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS UP AND THUS RESULTING IN RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS THE PCPN TYPE. TEMPS WERE A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE
WEST BUT STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND DEW POINTS JUST A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER. WINDS WERE ALREADY PICKING UP ACROSS THE WEST
TOO WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS. BASICALLY EXPECT THE SFC
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO MOVE UP TOWARD JAMES BAY
TODAY. HOWEVER A WEAK SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO HANG BACK INTO OUR
NORTHEAST FA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING LIGHT PCPN TODAY.
THE LIGHT PCPN SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE WEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT ISSUE IS WIND SPEEDS. WILL HAVE A DECENT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING IN AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
WILL MAINTAIN WINDS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERED SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA THIS EVENING. THINK THIS
WILL ALSO STAY MAINLY IN LIQUID FORM BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLAKES AROUND AGAIN. MODELS SHOW SOME CLEARING TRYING TO WORK ITS
WAY IN ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO WILL KEEP COOLER MIN TEMPS ACROSS
THE WEST. NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE CLEARING
OCCURS OR NOT. MODELS ARE STICKING WITH THE IDEA OF A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING THRU ON WED/WED NIGHT SO LEFT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WINDS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT WED NIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN ON THU WITH SOME LATE DAY
SUN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THU NIGHT BRINGING QUITE
CHILLY MIN TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKY AND THE
COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON.  HIGHS MOST AREAS EVEN WITH SUN
WILL BE 35-40.  SOUTHEAST WIND TO PICK UP FRI NIGHT AS HIGH DEPARTS
LEADING TO A BIT MILDER WEEKEND AS TEMPS RECOVER TO AROUND NORMAL.
NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA MONDAY.  TIMING
IS DIFFERENT AMONG GFS/ECMWF WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS.  BUT BOTH
WOULD HAVE SOME CHC OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

REALLY NOT EXPECTING PCPN TO BE A FACTOR AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS AND WINDS. STUCK WITH MVFR
CLOUDS TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD
HEIGHTS ALSO RISING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL WORK IN THIS
EVENING SO KEPT THINGS BKN FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON






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