Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 082044
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
344 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

AS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN FROM
ALEXANDRIA TO FERGUS FALLS UP THROUGH GRAND FORKS REMAINS MOSTLY
CLOUD FREE. SPC SHOWS LOTS OF CIN AND A STABLE AIRMASS. SOME CU
EITHER SIDE OF THIS ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN A LOW THREAT FOR AN
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THRU 00Z. SEEING A FEW BUBBLING TCU VIA SATELLITE
NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE AND AROUND BEMIDJI-CASS LAKE. OTHERWISE THE
CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS HIGHER AND JUST A FEW CUMULUS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLEAR WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY BRINGING UP SOME
SFC-500 MB MOISTURE...BUT SFC MOISTURE IS NOT AS GREAT AS PAST
EVENTS MOST OF THE MOISTURE REGULATED TO 850-500 MB. HOWEVER AS
500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO SASK AND WRN MANITOBA LATE THURS
AFTN/EVE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT AND HEATING AT THE SFC TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY VALUES WITH SHOWWALTERS TO -6C AND CAPES OVER 2000
J/KG IN FAR SE SASK 00Z FRI. SO WOULD EXPECT SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT
IN THAT REGION AND THEN MOVE EAST AND DEVELOP A BIT SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...MOST MODELS FOR A
FEW DAYS HAVE INDICATED A SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF WYOMING AND
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS PSBL THU
AFTN IN SE ND SO KEPT PRECIP IN THAT AREA WE HAD IN PAST FCSTS.
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA
LATER FRI AFTN.  WITH THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD TRANSITION FROM ZONAL 500MB FLOW ON FRIDAY TO
NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING OCCURS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND 500MB BOWLING
BALL PUSHES FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL CREATE A FEW
CHANCES FOR THUNDER...PERHAPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGHEST POPS AND COVERAGE AREAS ARE DURING THESE PERIODS. THE
PRINCIPAL RESULT OF THE SUNDAY WAVE WILL BE THE PROLONGED CYCLONIC
NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE WITH DRY COOL AIR USHERED INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TIME FRAME...MAYBE TRIMMED BY 2 OR 3
DEGREES FROM OUR LAST LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. 850 MB TEMPS MAY
DROP AS LOW AS + 4 C OVER THE NE FCST AREA BY MONDAY.




&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

NW FLOW WILL MOVE MVFR CLOUDS VCNTY KBJI SOUTH OF AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME CELLULAR CU KDVL EAST THROUGH
THE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  EASING GRADIENT WILL COMBINE WITH
DECOUPLING SIMULTANEOUSLY TO DROP WINDS TO 5 KTS OR SO BY SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN LOW WIND REGIME THROUGH WED AFTN.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE






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