Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SOME BREAKING UP OF CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. CLEAR SPOTS
IN THE NORTHWEST HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 50 SO MADE ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF BEFORE SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA FURTHER
WEST THAN EXPECTED...SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. STILL THINK WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OUT BY
MORNING SO CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S IN THAT AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS SO JUST KEPT
LOW POPS GOING FOR -RW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST...BUT
SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING AS THE NEXT VORT LOBE MOVES DOWN OUT
OF CANADA. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT TO WORK WITH...ONLY ABOUT 250
J/KG...BUT SOME THUNDER AND EVEN PEA SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE VORT
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO MN. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CLEARING TREND. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN
THE 40S IN THE WEST TO 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT LINGERS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND ALSO ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO TONIGHT. AS OF
MID AFTERNOON THE SFC BOUNDARY HAD SHIFTED TO A KROX TO KFSE TO KBWP
LINE. ALL THE CONVECTION WAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH UNTIL 8 PM...BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THIS FA BY 4 TO 5
PM AS THEY ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE KDVL REGION CLOUDS WERE THINNING BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
BREEZY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE AREAS OF COMPACT
SPINNING...ONE OVER CENTRAL/SE ND AND ANOTHER ONE UP OVER THE
MANITOBA LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING AS THE WINNIPEG LAKES WAVE DROPS INTO
NORTHWEST MN. THIS SHEAR AXIS HOLDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO HANG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. WOULD ALSO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE VALLEY
WITH LESS TO THE WEST. THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE KDVL REGION
WILL PROBABLY PUSH TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND
OVER NORTHWEST MN ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TO MATCH OTHER ADJACENT OFFICES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON TUE. WITH THE TUE SYSTEM BETTER CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

FOR WED THRU SAT...WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA
ON WED MAINLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THU. THIS WILL SET UP A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THEREFORE AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED IT LOOKS
SEASONAL FOR TEMPS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN THU INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VFR BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER
CIGS INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS MORNING. KEPT SOME MVFR
CIGS GOING AT KGFK...KBJI...AND KTVF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CU FORMATION WITH FAIRLY
LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS BUT ANY CIGS THAT FORM SHOULD BE IN THE
4000-6000 FT RANGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY TOMORROW EVENING AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR






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