Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210546
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS SPREADING THRU NW MN NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAIN SNOW AREA NOW ROSEAU TO BAGLEY....JUST ENTERING BEMIDJI.
OTHERWISE MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING SHOWERS AROUND GRAND FORKS AND
WEST SOUTH OF DVL FROM ACTIVITY THAT WAS EARLIER IN NW ND. THIS
SEEMS TO BE LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF LIGHT SNOW
AREAS...GETTING THE LIGHT FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR MIST. SO KEPT
THAT GOING AS WELL. TEMPS RISING A BIT WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND.
KEPT THEM STEADY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WILL KEEP IFR CIGS IN THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CLEARING IN CNTRL ND
JUST ABOUT DVL TO JMS AND HRRR INDICATES IT LIKELY NOT MAKING IT
FURTHER EAST. 925 MB WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST IN THAT AREA NOW AND TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY 15Z SUN. DVL AIRPORT ONLY SPOT WHERE BRIEF
CLEARING MAY OCCUR...BUT ALSO ALONG THE CLEAR-CLOUD LINE THAT IS
WHERE THE FOG WAS THICKEST FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE






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