Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 302326
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
626 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

NO FORECAST CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FROST POTENTIAL. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE
LOW 50S. HAVE SOME DEW POINT VALUES ACROSS THE EAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. THE WEAK SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP WINDS THE LIGHTEST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FA. GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THIS AREA SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME AREAS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. WILL GET INTO
BETTER RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS WHETHER ANY OF THE SHOWERS
THAT FORM TO THE WEST WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH OUR
SW FA. MOST MODELS EITHER SHOW THE SHOWERS DISSIPATING OR JUST
BRUSHING THE SW FA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOW TEMPS
FINALLY OUT OF THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN COMES MON NIGHT...AND MORE SO FOR TUE. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE.
DAY 4 SPC OUTLOOK FOR TUE HAS A PORTION OF THE SW FA HIGHLIGHTED
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...SO THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES
COMING INTO THE REGION. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
SUCH FEATURES. THERE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ONE SUCH
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE START OF THE PERIOD...SO KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT THIS POINT BUT TOO SOON FOR ANY DETAILS. KEPT POPS
DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES COMING
THROUGH. THE ECMWF TRIES TO GIVE US A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THE FLOW
AMPLIFIES AND UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS
IS MORE WET...AND EVEN WITH RISING HEIGHTS WE COULD GET RIDGE RIDERS
SO KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE RATHER THAN GOING COMPLETELY
DRY. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR WITH ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...VOELKER


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