Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251754
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1254 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THEN PCPN
CHANCES AFTER MID WEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE FA TODAY PROVIDING AMPLE
SOLAR. COLUMN WARMS A LITTLE HOWEVER WITH COOLER START
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO YESTERDAY.

HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT INITIATING RETURN FLOW TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. THIS SHOULD HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
50 WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S.

RETURN FLOW...MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 50S.

NEXT SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTS RIDGE AND PROPAGATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES HOWEVER
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAIN ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL PERIOD ATTM. THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES FOR THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS
AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S.
OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING THRU THE
FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKC.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK


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