Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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905
FXUS63 KFGF 080355
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
955 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.UPDATE...

Issued at 955 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Have allowed all headlines to be retired at their 03z expiration
time as visibilities have improved to where most sites are above
one mile. With northwest winds expected to continue to gust a bit
overnight (maybe up to 30 mph), some brief visibility reductions
below a mile will still be possible. Therefore, issued an SPS to
cover any issues overnight and through the Thursday morning
commute, specifically for the Devils Lake basin and up and down
the Red River Valley where winds are expected to remain the
strongest. Things appear to be greatly improved compared to
earlier in the day but conditions out in open country could still
be troublesome at times.

UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Visibilities in falling and blowing snow continue to improve
across the area as winds gradually decrease. Went ahead and
cleared areas east of the Red River Valley from the Winter Weather
Advisory at its expiration time of 00z as lighter winds of 10-20
mph have limited visibility problems. Extended the advisory along
and west of the valley until 03z (also matches up with Blizzard
Warning expiration across Devils Lake basin) where winds are
still a bit stronger and no travel advisories remain in place
across much of eastern North Dakota.

A few snow showers will persist this evening and overnight,
mainly across northwest Minnesota, as the upper low continues to
very slowly propagate further away from the area...but not
expecting more than an inch or so of additional accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 203 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Impacts will continue to be low visibility/potential blizzard
conditions in open areas with gusty winds this evening.

Preferred higher end model wind guidance continues to indicate
strong winds continuing into mid evening or so mainly over the
Devils Lake basin southward into the far western forecast area as
tight surface pressure gradient remains in place. This region has
consistently seen wind gusts from 35 to 40+ and vsby blo 1 mile
most of the day with some localized near white out conditions
possible. With conditions continuing have decided to upgrade to a
blizzard warning which would cover the evening commute home.
Farther east visibility not as low so will continue advisory as
scheduled and later shifts can determined if extension necessary.
Snow showers further limiting vsby should gradually shift east
later tonight as mid level shear axis pulls east. Additional
accumulations should be no more than a couple of inches at the
high side over main NW MN. With clouds and wind holding overnight
temperatures not likely to drop off a great deal.

Thursday should continue to see a gradual relaxing of the the
surface pressure gradient. Winds aloft through shallow mixed layer
also not as strong so blsn not anticipated other than some minor
drifting. Minimal recovery expected with temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 203 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

For Thursday night into Friday...the remaining remnant of the
surface low and resultant storm system finally departs. A few
lingering snow showers will continue...and northerly winds continue
to bring colder air over the region. Otherwise...arctic high
pressure continues to shift over the forecast area...bringing the
coldest temperatures so far for the season. By late Friday...the
upper pattern becomes a bit more zonal and increasing thicknesses
will result in some moderation of temperatures.

By Saturday into Sunday...another system approaches the area but
model consensus points to a more southerly track...with the center
of low pressure tracking across the central plains. As the system
tracks east...will see a reinforcement of cold air over the area.
Otherwise...temperatures will remain on the cooler side...with
little precipitation through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)

Issued at 627 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

MVFR/IFR conditions to continue throughout the period. Snow
chances will gradually diminish but visibility issues in blowing
snow will continue this evening with northwest winds continuing
to gust to 30-35 mph at KDVL, KGFK, and KFAR. Winds much lighter
at KTVF and KBJI with visibility restrictions due to light snow
showers.

Winds will decrease to 10-20 mph range by morning providing for
improved visibilities but MVFR ceilings should remain.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Lee



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