Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 280945
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM DENSE FOG CONTINUES FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GUIDANCE HOLDS VSBY DOWN THROUGH THE AM SO
HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

SHORT WAVE OF CONCERN ENTERING WESTERN SASK WILL PROPAGATE ESE
AFFECTING FA LATER TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN CORE
OF PCPN NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER. GFS WHICH IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN REALLY DOES NOT BRING LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SOUTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER TIL CLOSE TO 00Z THEN EXITS
FA TO THE EAST AT 06Z. WITH LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW COVERAGE WITH THE SYSTEM. MAINTAINED HIGHEST
POPS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NW MN. OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED.

EXPECT ANY SNOW TO END QUICKLY LATE EVENING AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.
THINK MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TOO FAR.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY SO AGAIN THERMAL RECOVERY WILL
BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEARING...LIGHT
WINDS AND COLDER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AFT MIDNIGHT FROM VALLEY WEST.

KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH WARMER COLUMN
AND NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD
PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START
DOWNWARD SLIDE OF TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN AND
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH KDVL AROUND
3/4SM. THINK THAT THE FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE WEST...BUT
KGFK AND KFAR SHOULD SEE VIS DROP BELOW 6SM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND BE IN THE 2-5SM RANGE OVERNIGHT. CIGS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...IN
THE 400-700 FT RANGE IN THE VALLEY AND LOWER AT KDVL. STRATUS HAS
FINALLY FILLED INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND KTVF AND KBJI HAVE
GONE MVFR. THINK THAT AT LEAST KTVF SHOULD DIP DOWN TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SITES WILL SEE THE LOW CIGS AND VIS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...WITH LIFR
CONTINUING AT KDVL. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...BUT
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING IN AFTER 20Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
KDVL COULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON CIGS WITH CONDITIONS
MVFR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR






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