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000
FXUS63 KFGF 140855
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT WILL USE LATEST HRRR FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS
THROUGH 18 UTC. THEREAFTER...A BLENDED SOLUTION SHOULD SUFFICE.

08 UTC WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG...YET PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND INTO NORTHEAST MT. A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ND IN AN AREA OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH STRETCHES
FROM NEAR WILLISTON TO MILES CITY MT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND
INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD AFTER 15 UTC. INCREASED POPS FROM 60 TO 80
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WHERE A QUICK QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE VALLEY FLOOR BY 18 UTC.
WITH STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...AN
ADIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER TO 750 HPA AND 30 TO 40 KTS TO MIX
DOWN...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ND NECESSITATES A
WIND ADVISORY FROM 17 TO 02 UTC FOR ALL AREAS EXPECT THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY STILL
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAIL.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
AFTER SUNSET...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING INTO EASTERN ND BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS
INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...
WILL NEED TO INCREASE FURTHER. DON/T EXPECT MUCH TEMPERATURE
CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY/S HIGHS IN THE 70S.

00Z ECMWF/GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN FRI-MON
IN SHOWING A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND EVENTUAL 500 MB LOW FORMATION IN
MINNESOTA. THIS LEADS TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THRU THE PD. SHOWWALTERS FROM THE MODELS PROG INDICATE
SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FRI-SUN THEN MOSTLY SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
OVER THE 4 DAY PERIOD...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE IN OUR REGION AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.50 INCHES OVER SE
ND INTO NRN MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE 09Z AND AFTER AROUND KDVL AND
FURTHER EAST LATER ON. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER
18Z WITH 20 TO 30 KTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 01Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF ERN ND INTO MUCH OF NW/WCNTRL
MN (EXCEPT LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTH BELTRAMI REGIONS) FOR 17Z TUE
TO 02Z WED. EVENING DISCUSSION WITH MN FIRE AGENCY INDICATES FUELS
ARE DRY AND PRIME. WILDFIRE ONGOING NEAR GRYGLA IN SOUTHEASTERN
MARSHALL COUNTY. FUELS REMAIN DRY IN ERN ND AS WELL...THOUGH PARTS
OF NE ND AND FAR NW MN WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL THIS MORNING. THE
EXTENT OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING IS STILL UNCERTAIN. AIDING IN FIRE
POTENTIAL IS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD EAST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN ND MIDDAY AND INTO NW/WCNTRL MN THIS AFTN
WITH GUSTS 40-50 MPH IN ERN ND AND 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE PRAIRIE
REGIONS OF NW/WCNTRL MN. THUS RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED. NOW HOURLY
TRENDS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE A CHALLENGE AND VERY DIFFICULT
TO FORECAST FOR DUE TO IMPACTS OF ANY MORNING PRECIP AND LOCATION.
THUS COULD HAVE WIDE VARIATIONS THIS MORNING-MIDDAY UNTIL THE
FRONT AND WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE RED RIVER AT OSLO...DRAYTON
AND PEMBINA. RIVER STAGES AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ARE CONTINUING A
SLOW RECESSION...WITH STAGES AT OSLO FALLING MORE RAPIDLY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER POINTS ON THE MAINSTEM RED AND ON THE ND/MN
TRIBUTARIES SHOW RECEDING OR NEARLY STEADY LEVELS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...SPEICHER