Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 011744
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SMOKE NOT QUITE AS DENSE AS IN PAST DAYS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER A BIT MORE. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST
AREAS. NEAREST ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN STILL IN N CENTRAL MT SO
LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS. TRIMMED
BACK POPS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALTHOUGH SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE DID TRIM BACK ON CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION... LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. POSSIBLE SHOWER OR TSTORM TO DRIFT NEAR DVL OVERNIGHT BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW...LOW CHANCES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.