Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281352
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
852 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS ARE THINNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ALREADY...AND CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY SHOULD THIN OUT
BY LATER MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE KBJI TO
KBDE AREA...BUT NO LONGER ANY LIGHTNING THERE. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST THIS MORNING TOO LEAVING MOST AREAS DRY
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE YET ABOUT ANY REDEVELOPMENT
OVER OUR MN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP KEEPS IT DRY WHILE
THE LATEST NAM12 SHOWS A SMALL BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT. EITHER WAY
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER FROM IT. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE
THE INCREASING WEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CIGS
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 HUNDRED AND 20 HUNDRED FT. SOME IFR CIGS
OF 4 TO 6 HUNDRED FT WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. MVFR TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 1 THOUSAND AND 4 THOUSAND FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES



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