Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260844
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
344 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

The forecast for today starts off with a high at the surface over
SD and southern MN...drifting east. There may be a few areas of
patchy fog early this morning...mainly in MN. A weak upper wave
is moving across the area this morning...with a stronger wave over
MT setting its eyes on the Northern Plains. Mostly sunny skies
this morning will give way to increased cloud cover and highs in
the 70s this afternoon as this wave approaches. A few showers will
move into SE ND this evening...followed by some thunderstorms
after midnight. MU CAPES will be generally under 500 J/kg...with a
southwesterly low level jet in place ahead of the main upper wave
helping push higher theta-e air into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms will likley be ongoing in the Red
River Valley early Saturday morning ahead of the upper wave. This
wave will move through the area mainly during the afternoon
hours...when 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE and 20-30 kts of deep shear
will be in place. The best shear looks to be in the south...where
a marginal risk of severe storms exists. With the wave moving east
quickly during the afternoon...thunderstorms will be possible only
early in the evening in the far east before moving out of the
area. On Sunday...a strong wave will pass to the north of the
area...but at the surface a warm front is expected to lift
northward into the area ahead of an approaching cold front.
Despite a lack of upper support...there is enough instability and
deep shear...combined with a boundary and marginal CIN to support
the possibility of a few strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday
like the GFS seems to support. Highs will warm into the 80s on
Sunday along with an increase in humidity.

Upper level troughs proximal to the east and west coasts will be
bookends for a building upper ridge over the central CONUS during
the extended forecast period. The ridge will be reflected at the
surface by warming temperatures to a bit above seasonal averages and
perhaps a couple of convective intervals. There is evidence that a
pair of shortwaves will move through this flow particularly on
Wednesday and Thursday. The more pronounced of the two will quite
possibly undercut the ridge on Thursday, offering better convective
potential at that time. The gridded forecast describes this
potential by offering slight pops the first 36 hrs or so followed by
steadily increasing chances Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

VFR through the period. Will see increasing mid/upper level clouds
during the afternoon ahead of next system.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Voelker



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