Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 262000
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
300 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

A weak sfc low over SE MB is resulting in weak cyclonic sfc flow
in the northeast. Most cloud cover across the northern half of the
CWA is becoming more cellular and may see some clearing by late
tonight. This afternoon, southeastern ND has been clear for
majority of day and full solar should increase thorugh the
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicating a band of 500 to 1000 J/KG
mean layer CAPE along clear line with cu field to the north,
extending into Valley City area. Expect that to extend into
southeastern ND through the afternoon and will be best chance for
convective activity late afternoon into the evening. Will keep
some low POPs across north in cycloic flow associated with SFC low
in SE MB, but majority of FA north of I-94 expected to be dry
overnight. Will keep low POPs in NW zones as upper low moves
across n central ND, but without decent heating today threat is
minimal.

For Friday...chances for precipitation increase tomorrow
afternoon as a vort max embedded in SW flow pattern aloft lifts
out of eastern SD during the mid aftn and into w central MN during
the early evening. Best chances for convection will be eastern CWA
in the evening hours, per preferred GFS although QPF maxima is
overly bullish.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Saturday and Sunday...Ridging from high pressure over norther
Sask/MB begins working its way into ND on Saturday, with northerly
SFC flow west of the valley. Will begin lowering pops for DVL
basin, trending toward dry from 06Z Sunday and through the day
Sunday. NAM continues to have SCT activity across the CWA on Sat
and confidence in NAM is low at this point, preferring the drier
GFS.

For Sunday night through Thursday...Still looking like a split flow
regime near the start of the long term. As the west coast ridge
builds, a low forms over Montana. This low will slowly track east
through the remainder of the long term period, or right through this
FA. Looking at the 12z model runs, the ECMWF remains faster than the
GFS in this eastward progression. What this means is that Sunday
night and Monday should mainly be dry, while Tuesday through
Thursday will see fairly decent chances for rain. Correspondingly,
Monday also looks to be the warmest day. With more clouds and rain,
Tuesday through Thursday cool down closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Ceilings that were MVFR or lower this morning have quickly increased
early this afternoon. Most locations are or will rise shortly into
the VFR range. Could even be SCT at times, but most locations will
stay BKN. A lot of the clouds are diurnal in nature, so they should
decrease in coverage this evening with winds also becoming light.
There may be a few showers around this afternoon, mainly around
KDVL, so have included a VCSH there. Otherwise will have to see how
extensive the showers become and adjust as needed. Models also show
some pcpn moving up toward KFAR later tonight or Friday morning.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher
AVIATION...Speicher



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