Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 020041
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

WINDS HAVE GONE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA SO ADJUSTED WIND
SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE BIT MORE THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. WILL
WAIT TO MAKE ANY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS UNTIL THE NEXT UPDATE. BY
DECREASING WINDS WILL ONLY SEE BRIEF BRUSHES WITH WIND CHILL
CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST  WILL BE TEMP DROP OFF TONIGHT AND THE
TEMP CURVE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND RETURN
FLOW SETS UP.

EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING THEN STEADY OFF AS SW
WINDS DEVELOP IN THE DVL BSN AND THEN EVENTUALLY IN THE RRV.
MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPS WARM CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TODAY WITH 925MB
TEMPS RISING TO AROUND -15C GIVING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. SOME -SN OR
FLURRIES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SW WITH A WEAK WAVE MONDAY AFTN
THOUGH HAVE KEPT DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

TUESDAY...KEPT THE -SN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AS
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z EC AND GFS KEEP THE HEAVIEST QPF BAND SW
OF THE FA. THE NAM AND GEM IS FARTHER NORTH HOWEVER WITH THE DRY
AREA ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THINKING
LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME TO SATURATE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I94/HWY10 CORRIDOR.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY DURING THE DAY
WED WITH STRONG CAA PEAKING 06Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. WILL SEE
NEGATIVE DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH AND 5F TO 10F SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN NW FLOW
WITH MEAN JET POSITION CROSSING THE AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SE...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND BROADENS
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROPAGATES THROUGH THE FLOW. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TO CROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN...AND TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS SPREADING INTO THE NORTHWEST FA.
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE FEW-SCT CIRRUS AND LIGHT WINDS.
WILL SEE A SOUTH WIND MON MORNING WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON





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