Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231507

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1007 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Issued at 1006 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Main 500 mb short in west central Manitoba moving southeast. Area
of showers out ahead of it on Canadian radar moving into far NW
MN. Expect the bulk of the showers to move thru NW MN this
afternoon and exit this evening. Enough heating on the western
edge of the cloud mass and west of the vort max for an isolated
thunder threat...mainly in the central RRV.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave/jet streak over east
central SASK. Short wave forecast to move southeast across
northwest MN this afternoon and evening. Precipitable water
rises to a little over an inch this afternoon and evening.
Short wave will produce showers and isolated thunder mainly
over the MN side for today and this evening.

Upper level ridge over the northern Rockies will move into the
Northern Plains Fri. Warm advection precip will move into the area
Fri and Fri night. Precipitable water rises to over an inch and a
half by Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Saturday-Tuesday...Models in decent agreement indicating a stronger
signal for rain Saturday into Sunday. Details such as timing,
amounts, and location still uncertain. Guidance depicts the
responsible upper level wave will be slow moving, and heavier rain
could be possible (likely not excessive given lack of instability,
but maybe an inch or two). Dry weather expected to start the next
work week. Temperatures near normal values.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Some IFR conditions were over northwest MN roughly bounded from
FGN to Redby MN to FSE to HCO. Mid level clouds were moving south
into the northern Red River Valley. Clouds should dissipate areas
with fog. The rest of the area was VFR. Fog should dissipate over
the next one or two hours. Except for fog early this morning,
expect VFR conditions for this afternoon and tonight.




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