Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 290831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD
BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACKEDGE
HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE
AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST
AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACKEDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT
WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN
NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS
EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID
LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON
PAST DAYS.

BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH
OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY
A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES
AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT
COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT
15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE
FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO
WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY
EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN
SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND
THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF
THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WEST...IFR CONDITIONS EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WED. THE CURRENT CLEARING LINE
IN WESTERN ND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE
WESTERN AREA AROUND 12Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 18Z. THEN
SOME MID CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATER WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WED AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK






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