Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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916
FXUS63 KFGF 242044
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
344 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Timing of rain ending and T over the east the main challenges.
Rain area beginning to shift east as upper wave lifts northeast.
Cam guidance significantly diminishes coverage after 21z as upper
support lifts out and adjusted pops accordingly. Surface boundary
has not moved much yet with the far east still in somewhat of the
warm sector. With temperatures in the upper 70s and dewpoints in
the mid 60s still see some potential for T with shear, modest cape
and low instability. Shear is respectable but lapse
rates/instability not impressive for strong storms but will
monitor. Boundary should push far enough to get the far east back
into cooler temperatures so minimums should range generally in the
40s.

Surface high pressure builds briefly into the region tomorrow and
most area should remain dry. Cool airmass in place and with cloud
cover temperatures will remain cool in the 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Main piece of the western upper low lifts northeast Monday night
and Tuesday. This will bring a return of rain chances however
amounts should be fairly light. Rain will move out of the region
Tuesday evening followed by building high pressure. Temperatures
will remain cool.

The upper trough will have exited the region to the northeast by
Wednesday bringing dry and milder temperatures to the region. Dry
conditions are short lived as an upper level system and surface
trough move out of Canada into the Western Great Lakes region
Thursday. Guidance still differs with these features, mainly at the
surface. The ECMWF/CMC has a closed surface low moving into Michigan
whereas the GFS has more of an open surface trough moving through
the same area. All have a cold front extending westward into the
Upper Midwest and Northern Plains moving south through the region.
The closer proximity and better surface response within the
ECMWF/CMC produces better rain chances for Minnesota counties
whereas the GFS solution provides even rain chances along and near
the cold front across the CWA. The forecast reflects a blend of both
scenarios with all areas seeing rain chances moving north to south
Thursday, best chances residing east of the Red River. Behind this
cold front, a surface high pressure will sink into the region from
Manitoba/Ontario. A core of seasonably cool air is expected to move
east of the area closer to the center of the upper/mid level trough
over the Great Lakes. Should this airmass edge into the region, the
potential of patchy frost in normal susceptible areas will be
present with a timeframe of around Friday morning as the surface
high moves over. After Friday, thicknesses increase along with a
return to southerly surface flow bringing mild temperatures back
into the forecast through the weekend. Winds out of the south may be
on the gustier side towards the weekend, especially in the
afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

IFR cigs sandwiched between mvfr cigs over the far west and east.
Only slow improvement is expected as rain area slowly shifts east
later this afternoon and tonight. IFR cigs may lift however at
best MVFR cigs will continue through the period.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...CJ/BP/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker



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