Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SOME MOISTURE HAS BEEN POOLING IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD BRING THE THREAT
OF FOG FORMATION AND THE HRRR AND RAP DO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF THIS.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG ON LONGER THAN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AND CIRRUS IS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY FOG MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST KEEP AN EYE
ON THINGS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S
OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AS
EXPECTED AFTER WE LOST DAYTIME HEATING. THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
AND WE WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THINK THAT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 40S AND DOWN INTO THE 30S BY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A TAD THIS EVENING AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. KEEP
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES STARTING TUE NIGHT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH RUN REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM SO FORECAST CONTINUITY PRETTY GOOD OVERALL. AS OF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD CONTINUED TO THIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN RATHER GUSTY BUT WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE FA THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN FA TOWARD TUE MORNING BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
COOL MORNING WITH TEMPS ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. SHOULD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON TUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MN FA WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ND. STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION
AND WIND GET GOING TUE NIGHT. MODELS OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAIN AXIS
OF PCPN WITH THE 12Z GFS MORE EAST-WEST AND FURTHEST EAST. ITS
850MB WINDS ARE MORE FRAGMENTED WITH ONE SEGMENT POINTING INTO
SOUTHEAST ND BY 12Z WED. OTHER MODELS HAVE THE WINDS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST WITH THE MAIN PCPN BAND SETTING UP IN THAT PATTERN.
LIKE THIS IDEA FOR NOW AS IT DOES MATCH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER ON THE 12Z RUNS SO WILL KEEP
THINGS MOSTLY AS SHOWERS FOR NOW AND SEE IF LATER RUNS CHANGE THIS
IDEA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

STILL CONTINUE WITH THE SHOWERS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...GRADUALLY
PUSHING THEM FROM EASTERN ND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN.
LOOKS QUITE WINDY ON WED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME DRYING MAY
WORK INTO THE FA ON THU MORNING BUT THIS LOOKS TO FILL BACK IN
WITH SHOWERS BY THU AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS STILL
LOOKING AT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER BAND.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON TRANSITION FROM THE MIDWEEK LARGE SCALE...MOIST NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND... WITH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TRANSITION
PERIOD. THUS KEPT A FAIRLY LOW /CHC/ POP AND LOW QPF MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY PM THROUGH MONDAY... THE NP
AREA APPEARS STUCK UNDER AN H5 OMEGA BLOCK WITH DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. IF THIS HOLDS...
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT TYPICALLY MEANS SOME VERY LOW DEW POINTS
AND VERY DRY AIR IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...JR






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