Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241931
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
231 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTN CONTINUES TO BE WINDS. CURRENT OBS
SHOWING A FEW SITES AT 24 KT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS...STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL MONITOR 20Z OBS AND IF WE
GET MORE IN THE 25 TO 26 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY ISSUE
ADVISORY...OTHERWISE HOLD OFF. HAVE HIRES NMM IN FOR WIND GRID
GUIDANCE AND THEY SEEM REASONABLE. NEXT ISSUE FOR SHORT TERM WILL
BE TEMPERATURES AND HAVE USED A FCST BLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA (26 KTS
SUSTAINED) AROUND TIME OF FCST ISSUANCE. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF
NEEDED. VORT OVER MANITOBA LAKES WILL CONTINUE INTO ONTARIO AND
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER PAC NW.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS REGION BY 06Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME
BUT CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS 2 TO
3 DEG AS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT HIGH WITH WINDS LIGHTENING AFT
MIDNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SATURDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE ENTERING DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN AND SHOULD SEE A DRY AND COOL FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SFC RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH CWA SAT NIGHT AND COOLEST TEMPS WILL
BE ACROSS NW MINNESOTA...RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OR EVEN
COOLER IF WINDS GO COMPLETELY CALM. UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD BY 12Z
SUN MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUN AND MON...WILL TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH A WAVE
ENTERING DAKOTAS SUN AFTN. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
BACK INTO 60S ON SUN...WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
RIVER IN THE AFTN. 12Z NAM DID HAVE NEG SHOWALTERS WITH GFS VALUES
AROUND ZERO...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE LATE AFTN.
MODELS DEPICTION OF SFC PATTERN STILL QUITE VARIABLE BUT APPEARS
WE COULD BE IN DRY SLOT MONDAY WITH SOME WRAP AROUND IN THE NW MON
AFTN. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND KEEP POPS ALONG
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS
GOING MAINLY IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO
AROUND -2 C...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN DURING THE COOLEST PART
OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS WEEK AS HIGHS DIP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND YET ANOTHER ON THURSDAY...KEEPING SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO HELP
REINFORCE COOL AIR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST...AND SHOULD PICK UP WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO BELOW 15 KTS AT SUNSET
AND SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR






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