000
FXUS63 KFGF 211203
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
703 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions across eastern North
  Dakota and northwest and west central Minnesota today as
  relativfe humidity values drop below 25 percent in the
  afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Few cirrus clouds moving into far northern MN, around Lake of
the Woods. Skies clear elsewhere. Impacts today tied to near
critical fire weather conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Full sunshine expected today as high pressure drops to our south
and winds turn more westerly today. As upper low and surface low
continues to move away 900-800 mb layer winds diminish so wind
speeds today in the more tolerable 10-15 mph range. Dry airmass
in place with dew points today in the upper teens to low 20s.
Surface temps warm about 10 degrees over Saturday with highs
upper 50s/low 60s. This will bring RH values down into the 17-22
percent range for the forecast area. Based on low RH values near
critical fire weather conditions will occur in both eastern ND
(after coord with BIS) and in NW/WC Minnesota (coord with
DLH/MPX). Per policy mention near critical fire wx in E ND in
HWO and SPS to be issued for MN fcst area for today.

Next 500 mb short wave/upper low is moving into central BC and
then into central Alberta by late today and track east-
southeast into south central Saskatchewan Monday afternoon.
Moisture ahead of this 500 mb wave is very limited as 850 mb
winds turn westerly Monday. Enough mid level moisture for a few
rain showers as surface trough moves thru E ND/NW MN in the
aftn/eve. Rain amounts very light with probability of more than
0.25 inch 5 percent. Mostly looking at trace to 0.05 inch. Upper
low will open up and more of a short wave trough will move into
northern MN by 12z Tues with this short wave trough moving
southeast quickly Tuesday. Area of clouds and gusty north sfc
winds spread thru the fcst area Mon overnight/Tues AM with
a bit of light rain/drizzle. NBM pops look a little low Tuesday
AM so did spread the 15-20 pops a bit more widespread than NBM
4.1 gave.

Clearing works in fast and a sunny day on Wednesday.


Thursday and beyond an active pattern develops as a couple of
strong 500 mb short waves move inland from the Pacific and into
the central or southern Rockies and then northeast from there
toward the Great Lakes. For our area...these will bring chances
for rain, higheset chances for each are over the southeast 1/2
of the fcst area. How far the rain gets is a bit different among
the various long range ensembles with GFS maintaining a bit
stronger solution, but all do have the chances for 1 inch or
more to our south/east so rain amounts do not look too
impactful at this time. with probs for more than 0.25 inch in a
24 hr period Friday-Friday night across the forecast area 50-60
percent southeast to 30 percent northwest. A wave Apr 30/May 1
does look to be the stronger of the 2 in terms of rain coverage.
But again the better chances for 1 inch or more of rain does
look to be to our south/east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 656 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR thru the pd. Clear sky today into the evening, with
increasing high clouds later tonight. West wind 8-13kts today
turning southwest late aftn/eve and southerly later tonight
12-18 kts with some gusts to 25 kts in the Devils Lake basin 06z
and after.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle