Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 181556
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
956 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Forecast on track at this time. Heavy snow band has laid up along
a Cooperstown to Buxton to Bemidji line, and should continue
through early afternoon... with snow tapering off from the west
through the afternoon. Winds still expected to turn from the north
and increase through the afternoon with blowing and drifting snow
issues.

Low pressure system was centered around Chamberlin SD at 15z, and
is a bit slow moving across that state.

UPDATE Issued at 529 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Increasing confidence with higher snow totals and placement along
the Hwy 2 and Hwy 200 corridor. Issued a winter storm warning for
4 to 7 inches of snow this morning then 25 mph winds with gusts
to 35mph this afternoon in the central valley. These conditions
will create hazardous driving with whiteouts especially in open
country this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Winter weather impacts are the concern today from fasting moving
band of snow to bisect the forecast area. As SFC low tracks to the
south of the area warm air advection will bring widespread 2 to 5
inches to the area. A potentially higher band of snow and snowfall
rates exists embedded within the currently headlined advisory
area, a Valley City to Fargo to Park Rapids line and north. As
frontogenetical forcing coupled within the broad synoptic lift
expecting a 10 to 20 mile wide band of snow to move across the
area between 6am and noon today Best idea on timing of the
placement of the stronger band developing will be around 6 to 9am
time frame. With respect to blowing snow and reduced visibility
concerns with current wind guidance, usually too low, suggests
winds to become sustained 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph in
the valley by noon. This will produce areas of blowing and
drifting snow making travel difficult across open country this
afternoon. Pockets of blizzard conditions are possible where
heavier snow and strong winds overlap.

Snow and wind impacts taper off quickly in the evening with temps
bottoming out overnight ranging from teens below across the
Devils Lake basin to single digits above in the southern valley.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Much of next week will feature a long wave trough anchored from the
Northern Rockies through the Great Basin while a Bermuda high sets
up off the southeast coast. Split flow will still predominate with
the northern plains in zonal to southwest flow most of the time.

On Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon there is agreement that
multiple waves and sfc lows will propagate from the central plains
into the upper midwest. A swath of snow is likely from Interstate 94
south and possible farther north through about Federal Highway 2.
Impactful accumulations of up to 4 or 5 inches will be possible
across the southern areas, with the likelihood of winds in the 20 to
30 mph range adding to visibility reductions. As with yesterday`s
deterministic runs the GFS remains drier over a greater area than
the ECMWF, but it is beginning to agree more with the latter in
terms of coverage and pcpn intensity. Surface high pressure will
begin to dominate Tue night through Wed, with colder overnight temps
and highs remaining below average for Wed.

Later in the week (Thu/Fri and into Sat) with the high farther east,
return flow will boost afternoon temperatures into and through the
20s. Some low impact warm air advection pcpn is possible on Fri
into Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Updated at 950 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions today as band of heavy snow moves
through the region. As snow tapers off this afternoon winds will
increase and turn from the north producing some blowing and
drifting snow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     NDZ006>008-016-038-039-054.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ014-015-
     024-026>030.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     MNZ003>009-027-028.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ001-002-
     013>017-022>024.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JK


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