Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231841
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANYBODY TRAVELING WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON
ROAD CONDITIONS CONSIDERING MOST ARE WET AND THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING THAT OCCURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10AM. PTYPE IS
ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS. ROADS ARE NOT IN
GREAT SHAPE...AND ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL NOT HELP.
BUT...SINCE IT IS ALL SNOW (AND WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH) THERE
IS NO REASON FOR AN ADVISORY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FZDZ AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (DRYING
ALOFT)...BUT PREDICTABILITY FOR THESE TYPES OF EVENTS ARE LOW AND
WILL HANDLE THAT IF IT OCCURS (AND WILL BE WATCHING OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM).

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...-DZ/-SN CONTINUES AND DID
INCREASE POPS (HIGH POP/LOW QPF). TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL TODAY...AND WITH SOME SITES NEAR FREEZING
ALONG WITH A DRIZZLE/SNOW MIX...THERE COULD BE SOME ICY PROBLEMS.
MOST AREAS APPEAR TO BE REMAINING WET WITH THE AFFECT OF THE PREVIOUS
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINING. IT IS A
CONCERN HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES...PCPN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS/PHASE AND ONGOING HEADLINES. MODELS OVERALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE GFS/ECMWF BLEND.

STACKED LOW VCNTY IA TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AND FILL DURING THE
DAY. ALL AVAILABLE MESOSCALE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATING
DIMINISHING QPF TREND...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAKES SENSE AS
290K SURFACE FROM GFS INDICATING LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BUT ALL AREAS IN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. BASED ON
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL BACK OFF A BIT
ON POPS. AS FAR AS PHASE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE MOST PART SUPPORT
RA/SN FOR MEASURABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER DVL BASIN WHERE MODELS
INDICATE DRYING THIS AM IN THE -12 TO -18 LAYER WHICH WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF FZDZ. WITH TEMPERATURES BLO 32 AND CURRENTLY GETTING
-RA AND -SN FROM METARS WILL EXTEND WINTER WX ADVISORY TO 10AM
WHICH WILL COVER MORNING COMMUTE. WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY.

ANY RESIDUAL PCPN ENDS FROM W-E OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ANY POPS AFT
06Z. THERMAL ADVECTION RELATIVELY NEUTRAL SO TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD TRENDS. AT THIS POINT ANY DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN FA SO HAVE LOWER MINIMUMS THIS AREA.

NEXT WAVE TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
CHRISTMAS EVE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WITH MAIN SUPPORT NORTH OF THE
BORDER KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO THE BORDER AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH SNOW BAND CHRISTMAS
DAY/NIGHT SO CONFINED POPS TO AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I94. MODEST COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES CHRISTMAS NIGHT HOWEVER MINIMUMS WILL STILL HOLD ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS WI FRI/FRI NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR OR INTO SE ND/WC MN...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THE
EXACT TRACK YET. BEHIND THE SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW AVERAGE. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUT BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...BRINGING REINFORCING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

CIGS AND VSBY BEGINNING TO IMPROVE AS NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
DRY THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AT DVL...GFK AND TVF. SOME -SN
FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTN POSSIBLE AT DVL AND GFK. UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW FAR EAST MVFR CIGS IN W ND WILL MAKE IT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE PREDOMINANT IFR CIGS GOING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK




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