Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 310830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MONTANA. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE WAVE OVER
EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TODAY.
MUCH OF THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL MOVE INTO CANADA WITH THE
UPPER WAVE...JUST GLANCING PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER.
AFTER THIS PUSHES THROUGH BY MID-MORNING...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH THE BOUNDARY
AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT WITH WEAKENING SFC CONVERGENCE AND WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPS...NOT CONFIDENT IN ANY PRECIP. MOST GUIDANCE IS
DRY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN VERY WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS/ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TUE
NIGHT WITHIN ENHANCED 700-850 MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THE 00Z
NAM SHOWS AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE ALONG WITH 20-30 KTS OF DEEP
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...PLACEMENT AND EVEN INITIATION OF
ELEVATED STORMS IN THESE WARM ADVECTION REGIMES TENDS TO BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...SO JUST KEPT LOW POPS TUE NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND MOIST AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS MAY REACH NEAR 90 IN SPOTS...NEARLY 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
SHOULD COME THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THEN PERHAPS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

REALLY ONLY EXPECT SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY CLIP KDVL LATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY
MONDAY...SO KEPT A VCSH THERE. OTHERWISE WITH FRONT MOVING THRU
MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD START OUT FROM THE SOUTH AND TURN MORE SW-W
THRU THE DAY THEN LIGHTEN UP BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...DK/JAM
AVIATION...GODON



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