Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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650
FXUS63 KFGF 290443
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1143 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Lowered lows just a few degrees in areas with clear skies and
light winds. Otherewise forecast in good shape.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Low impact weather conditions will continue through the short
term. Cu field and isolated showers across the south will
dissipate this evening. Low levels a bit drier than yesterday so
will likely see minimums a few degrees cooler than last night.

Surface high pressure shifts east tomorrow setting up weak return
flow. Models split on potential for pcpn across the south during
the afternoon. Convective parameters remain weak so if anything
would be mainly showers. With lower confidence from models will
stay consistent and keep forecast dry. Dependent on cloud cover
temperatures may be a few degrees warmer with enough solar as
column warms slightly.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

This period starts off with a couple of weak short waves moving
through the region in WNW flow aloft. Currently, the chances are low
that any showers or thunderstorms will be associated with these
waves. The NAM and GFS both have a hint of convection in the Red
River Valley with this wave Friday night...with a weak 20-25kt low
level jet in the south in the GFS but shifted more in the north in
the NAM. Have added a slight chance across mainly eastern ND to
account for this potential.

On Saturday, instability increases across the area as moisture
increases...mainly on the ND side. Precipitable water values will be
back to around 1.25"...up from being between 0.75" and 1" today.
Still...without strong forcing...expecting primarily isolated
activity on Saturday and Saturday night.

The better chance for thunderstorms comes on Sunday evening and
overnight as a strong wave and surface frontal system move through
the region. With CAPEs over 2000 J/kg and deep shear over
30kts...there looks to be a fair chance for severe weather also.
However...timing may be slower as indicated by the ECMWF compared to
the NAM/GFS.

Another upper disturbance and low pressure system will move through
the region late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. This also
looks like a strongly forced system that could affect much of the
region.

Temperature trends during this period will be generally warming to
slightly above average for Sunday/Monday/Tuesday...before cooling
back down below average by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

VFR thru the pd. Light winds thru Friday morning turning southerly
5 to 10 kts Friday aftn-night. Clear sky in most areas thru Friday
sunrise then increase in sky cover especially in E ND Fri aftn/eve
as moisture increases in the 5-8k ft range.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Riddle



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