Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 140838
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR FOR MINIMAL PRECIP TODAY WILL BE THE
PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN TODAY. RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE THIS AREA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WHILE
MAIN VORT WILL BE HEADING AWAY FROM US DURING THE DAY...THERE IS
ALSO THE COLD POOL ALOFT. THAT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S...WHICH WE SHOULD HIT AND SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS JUST A TAD IN THE WEST WHERE
THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE...IT SEEMS PRETTY DRY IN THE EAST SO
VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. EVEN WHERE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND IT
SEEMS THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE COLD AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS AND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST. KEPT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THE
WEST SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS WITH WINDS AND MIXING INCREASING BY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MT. THE SOUTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
COLD BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS MODERATING A BIT THE SOUTH COULD MANAGE
TO REACH THE 40S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL QUITE A SPREAD AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER BUT ALSO
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE. THE GEM IS IN BETWEEN...WHILE THE NAM IS THE
SLOWEST AND HAS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP CAMP OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR QUITE A LONG TIME. THE NAM SEEMS OVERDONE AS
FAR AS SNOW...SO LEANED TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME PRECIP STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A NORTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
APPROACH. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM WESTERN SD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY...AND SOME RAIN MAY
MIX IN WITH THE SOUTH WHICH WILL AFFECT ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW
BROAD BRUSHED THE AREA WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...BUT
FULLY EXPECT THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...BUT 500 HPA HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS ARE MESSY
WITH THE DETAILS. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL
WOBBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVE FOR SATURDAY AND THEN BUILDING RIDGE TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS PATTERN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING SATURDAY WHEN THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALTHOUGH ONLY THE ECMWF DEVELOPS QPF
WHEREAS THE GFS IS DRY. FOR THE MOST PART...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE 30S) WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH CIGS COULD DEVELOP AROUND
4000 FT MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD SURGE AND
DECENT MIXING...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25KT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
MONDAY EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SPRING SNOW MELT RUNOFF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH BASIN WITH MODERATE FLOODING AT HALLOCK AND OSLO AND MINOR
FLOODING AT ROSEAU...ALVARADO AND ON THE RED AT GRAND FORKS...
DRAYTON AND LATER THIS WEEK PEMBINA.

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS RISEN TO MODERATE LEVELS AND
CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY ICE. ADDITIONAL RISES OF A HALF OF A
FOOT OR SO ARE EXPECTED. AT ALVARADO RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. AT ROSEAU THE
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO RECEDE. RIVER LEVELS AT ABOVE WARREN HAD
RISEN TO NEAR (INCONSEQUENTIAL) FLOOD STAGE LAST EVENING...BUT HAVE
SINCE DROPPED BACK BELOW 67.0 FEET. CALLED OFFICIALS TO INVESTIGATE
AND THEY FOUND NOTHING UNTOWARD. WIRE WEIGHT DATA STILL BEING
RECEIVED FOR ROSEAU RIVER AND THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/ROGERS
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS/WJB






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