Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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972
FXUS63 KFGF 182012
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
312 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TONIGHT ARE CLEARING TRENDS AND TEMPS. AS
OF 3 PM SEEING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE FAR NW FA...ACROSS TOWNER
AND WESTERN BENSON COUNTIES. MODELS SHOW THE NORTH CLEARING FIRST
WITH THE CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY SE.
SINCE ENTIRE FA PICKED UP 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN...NOT SURE HOW COLD
TEMPS CAN GET TONIGHT. UNDERCUT CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS A BIT
WITH COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NW FA. PREVIOUS SHIFT ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA TONIGHT WHICH STILL LOOKS GOOD.
RECORD LOWS ARE UNLIKELY TODAY FOR KGFK/KFAR...AS TEMPS WOULD HAVE
TO DROP BELOW 25F BEFORE 1 AM. RECORD LOWS MORE LIKELY FOR THE
19TH AS TEMPS ONLY HAVE TO DROP BELOW 28/29F. EXPECT THE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. TUE INTO WED LOOKING MUCH
QUIETER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THU WITH TEMPS CONTINUING A
SLOW WARMING TREND.

FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY PERIOD...THE FCST
ISSUE WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH WILL MOISTURE GET FROM A LARGE 500 MB
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. NRN EXTENT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED BY HOW
FAR SOUTH AN UPPER TROUGH CAN DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND HUDSONS BAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN HOW FAR NORTH
TO BRING UP THE MOISTURE. GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BROUGHT
UP SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY INTO SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN AND
POINTS SOUTH. ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER OF LATE HOWEVER. 12Z
GEM HAS NO BLOCKING NORTH OF US AND TAKES UPPER LOW OVER NORTH
DAKOTA LATE SUN-MON PERIOD WITH RAIN. SO FOR THIS REASON...WILL
LEAVE THE LOWER 20-30 POPS WE HAVE IN THERE GENERATED BY THE CR
BLEND TOOL. OTHERWISE...A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

CLEARING OF THE MVFR STRATOCU DECK IS THE MAIN ISSUE. USED
RAP/GFS TIMING OF CLEARING 850 MB MOISTURE AS A GUIDE. THIS BRINGS
CLEARING TO DVL MID AFTERNOON...THEN INTO GRAND FORKS BY 06Z AND
THEN WORKING SOUTH AND EAST BY BJI-FAR LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY BUT DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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