Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 190901
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

DIFFERENT REGIMES FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF FOR
TODAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
MT. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL JET
WAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE. RAIN AND THETA-E
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM TODAY IS A DRY LAYER
IS FORECAST BETWEEN 850 AND 700 HPA THAT PRECIP ALOFT WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME. LOW CIGS OVER NEB FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND FOG LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING NORTH.

EAST WEST CROSS SECTION SUGGEST A FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND A FRONT
ALOFT FOLLOWS FRI NIGHT AND LATER FRI NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. PROBLEM
WITH DRY LAYER REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS.

MODELS FORECAST A 120+ KNOT UPPER JET TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER BC WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE AND 500 HPA TEMPS FALL BELOW -20C
ON SAT. WILL GO FOR THUNDER FRI NIGHT/SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA.  MODELS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVE A 500 MB
LOW OVER IDAHO MOVE EAST AND THE NORTHEAST WED-THU INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT CONFIDENCE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WED
EXITING THURSDAY.  MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WRN MINNESOTA.  AREA OFFICES TONED DOWN POPS
GIVEN FROM ALL BLEND TOOL ON FRIDAY AS IT WASNT SUPPORTED BY
MODELS.  OVERALL NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

STRATUS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE/SE SD LIFTING NORTH SO MAINTAINED
MENTION OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE MID
MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SPOTTY SHRA MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH MORE UPSTREAM PCPN BUT PRETTY FAR
WEST. LIMITED SHRA MENTION TO FAR/GFK WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ELSEWHERE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER



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