Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160042
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
642 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SNOWFALL IS WEAKENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES IT WILL END SHORTLY (AS FORCING PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS AREA). TRAVEL LIKELY HAZARDOUS ACROSS
THIS AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ON
TOP OF ICE COVERED ROADS.

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS...AND WHETHER OR NOT THE
CLEARING IN CANADA WILL ADVECT INTO THIS REGION. THE HRRR/RAP SAY
YES (CLEARING WILL OCCUR). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH...AND WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME
WOULD THINK CLOUDS REMAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT (ALBEIT WITH SOME POSSIBLE BREAKS). DID LOWER MIN TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES WITH CURRENT VALUES BELOW THE EXPECTED DIURNAL
CURVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LINGERING PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE SE
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
BLEND FOR FORECAST.

DEFORMATION BAND OF PCPN FROM EXTREME SE ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN
HAS SHOWN WEAKENING TREND AND HAS TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW
WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH RUC SOUNDINGS. FORTUNATELY WEB CAMS
WITHIN HEAVIEST BAND INDICTED ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AND GOOD
VISIBILITY. AS SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES EAST THIS EVENING
DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN SHOULD FOLLOW WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING. WITH
EXPECTED TRENDS WILL EXPIRE CURRENT HEADLINES WITH FORECAST
ISSUANCE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WHICH AT TIMES HAVE FLIRTED WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRING OVER MB LAKES REGION COULD WORK
INTO THE NORTHERN FA TONIGHT HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD OFF SET COLD ADVECTION WHICH
LEVELS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT SO EXPECTING MINIMUMS A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. COLUMN GRADUALLY
DRIES OUT HOWEVER W-NW FA MAY BE THE ONLY AREAS WITH ANY POTENTIAL
FOR SOLAR. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY KEEPING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE.

AS HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TOMORROW NIGHT DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER FA WEDNESDAY AND DEGREE OF SOLAR WILL
IMPACT TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WITH COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE OUT OF THE TEENS.

COLUMN BEGINS TO RECOVER THURSDAY AND WITH SOLAR AND LACK OF SNOW
COVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK TO AVERAGE.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...KIND OF A MUDDLED MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR FRI THRU SUNDAY. NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO WORK WITH. AT THE SFC...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUT STILL KEEPING SOME INFLUENCE OVER
THIS FA. THEREFORE ALTHOUGH MODELS KICK OUT SOME MINIMAL PCPN AT
TIMES WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WEST
COAST RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD UP A LITTLE RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
IN THIS AREA. SFC PATTERN STILL UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE PCPN FIELDS
DIFFER QUITE A BIT BETWEEN MODELS. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE
AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

STILL NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT. HRRR/RAP
INDICATE THAT THE CLEARING WORKING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO INFILTRATE THE REGION BRINGING CLEARING SKY OVERNIGHT. NOT SO
SURE ABOUT THIS CONSIDERING MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION (USUALLY LEADS TO
CONTINUED CLOUDS). WILL WATCH TRENDS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH
OVERALL STORY OF MVFR CIGS (BUT COULD BE BRIEF BREAKS).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG





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