Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250006
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
706 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

A SURGE IN THE RAIN BAND IN THE LAST HOUR HAS SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE
TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND FORKS-DEVILS LAKE. UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING
AS IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST SOUTHEAST OF RAPID CITY. CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD WILL CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN ERN SD/WRN MN AND THEY WILL MOVE NORTH
AND THEN WEST AROUND THE LOW. FCST WITH HIGH POPS ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTH LOOK GOOD INTO MONDAY.  |

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

MAIN CONCERN/IMPACTS WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH 1-2 INCHES
LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MAIN TREND IS FOR A
SLOWER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION...WITH
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE. LOTS OF FORCING
MECHANISMS WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM...RANGING FROM SYNOPTIC 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO MESOSCALE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. LONG
STORY SHORT...EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IT WILL NOT RAIN THE
ENTIRE TIME AT ANY ONE GIVEN LOCATION...BUT MOST AREAS (EXCEPT
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER) WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL. AREAS
BETWEEN HWY 2 AND I-94 WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHIFTING
SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE TAKES OVER
(ENTIRE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION).

ON MONDAY...A SLOWER EXIT OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL LINGER THE
DEFORMATION ZONE...AND HELD ON TO THE HIGHER POPS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (IT WILL NOT BE A
CONSISTENT RAIN...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY). ALSO DELAYED THE CLEARING AND LOWERED TEMPS.

TOTAL RAINFALL IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT ANY ONE GIVEN
LOCATION...AND ENSEMBLE SHOW THIS WITH A WIDE RANGE IN AMOUNTS.
MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 SHOULD RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES BY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH AMOUNT RAPIDLY DECREASING TO THE NORTH. IT
HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY...AND FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...RIDGING WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND TRENDED POPS IN
THIS DIRECTION AS WELL.

WED NIGHT-SUNDAY...EXPECT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE MAIN STORM TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

RAIN THE STORY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. IFR CIGS EAST AND WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY MAY LOWER TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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