Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 311729
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES AS FORECAST ON TRACK...TEMP AND CLOUDS TRENDS
ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT
AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JM/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG



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