Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 111305 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
705 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

No significant changes to ongoing forecast. Still expect snow to
continue in the northern to central valley and areas east in
northwest MN through mid morning, gradually tapering off from west
to east. Winds may still result in visibility reductions through
the day, especially in open areas, with conditions slowly
improving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Snow will taper off from west to east this morning, with north winds
slowly weakening through the day. Could see occasional visibility
issues in open areas through the day with winds remaining fairly
strong, but visibility should drastically improve by mid day as
falling snow ceases. Areas in the far southern RRV have only seen
isolated snow over the past few hours, so adjusted these counties
into an advisory (instead of warning) for the remainder of the
event. For other locations, previous thinking with headlines will
continue given continued widespread blowing snow.

An added concern today and tonight is dangerous wind chill values in
the -20 to -40 degree range remaining into Friday. Despite gradually
weakening winds, temperatures will continue to plummet due to
continued cold air advection and eventually nighttime radiational
cooling under a surface high. Lows are expected to reach the 20s
below zero. To avoid confusion with ongoing winter headlines, will
hold off on a wind chill advisory for now. After winter weather
headlines end, a wind chill advisory will be needed for the entire
area through at least 18z/noon CST Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Arctic air settles in for the long haul through the weekend and
into early next week. A weak shortwave moving through MT into SD
could brush our far southwestern counties with precip on Friday,
but at this point it seems most everything will be south so kept
only minimal POPs. There could be some slight improvement to
temperatures Saturday night/Sunday with warm air advection out
ahead of the next shortwave digging down out of Canada, but not
much. For the most part highs will be below zero and lows in the
teens to 20s below through the day 2 through 6 period. Wind chills
will be at advisory criteria most nights. There could be some
light snow with Sunday`s shortwave but at this point it seems any
accumulations would be an inch or less. By the middle of next week
there are indications of a brief warming trend, but models start
to diverge in the days 7 and beyond period. Will keep the blended
solution going with dry conditions and temperatures starting to
rise up above zero the zero mark.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 705 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

LIFR to IFR cigs and vsbys will prevail through the morning for
sites along and east of the Red River Valley. Conditions will
gradually improve to MVFR and IFR, starting near DVL this morning
and working east through the day as snow tapers off west to east
and winds dissipate slowly. VFR conditions expected for most sites
by late afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ006-
     049-052-053.

     Blizzard Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ008-016-027-
     029-030.

     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-039-054.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ029.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ005-006-008-
     009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040.

     Blizzard Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ001-002-004-
     007.

     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ003.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...BP



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