Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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741
FXUS63 KFGF 150957
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
357 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Surface trough just east of the forecast area will intensify
today as the system moves east. 100 to 160M height falls are
expected today as upper system also intensifies. System closes
off at lower levels. Wrap around precip over southern MAN will
move across the northeast zones today. Also precipitable water
was around a third of an inch and will decrease during the day
except in the northeast zones where precipitable water will
decrease late today and tonight.

East-west cross section indicated a nearly adiabatic boundary
layer this morning. Most of the cold advection is occurring
around 900 hpa. So expect winds to be up today and will
increase winds. Winds will back off after sunset. Fog loop
indicated breaks in the low clouds over parts of central and
western ND and in southern MAN. However southern MAN clear
spots may fill in with clouds with developing system. Some
clearing will be possible this afternoon and tonight mainly
over the southwest zones.

Return flow will occur Thu with winds gusty again but out of the
south at 20 to 30 knots.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

An upper level ridge will be centered over the Upper Mississippi
River Valley on Thursday night, drifting east across the Great Lakes
region. An upper level wave will be moving east across the prairie
provinces and the Northern Plains states Thursday night as well. A
strong frontogenesis band will develop over eastern ND and push
northeast into far northern MN ahead of this wave. Models hint at
warmer temps aloft with this feature, which may result in sleet or
freezing rain across northeast ND. Liquid precipitation of 0.10" to
maybe 0.25" on the upper end look to be possible at this time. If it
was snow it might be and inch or two but if it`s freezing rain or
sleet, it could be a big problem. Plenty of uncertainty exists
still, however.

As the upper level trough passes...so does the surface low and cold
front. Still, highs are expected to be in the 30s for the most part
on Friday. A stronger push of cold air comes Friday night...keeping
highs in the upper teens and 20s for Saturday. After Saturday, a dry
warming trend is expected until Monday night/Tuesday when another
push of cold air will drop south from Canada, perhaps along with
some snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Poor flying conditions with LIFR, IFR conditions to continue in
vsby or cigs in the RRV and NW MN thru late aftn. This evening
will see a west wind shift and improvement in the cigs/vsbys from
west to east. However lower cigs likely to return in the cold
advection overnight with northwest winds.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Knutsvig



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