Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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241
FXUS63 KFGF 040541
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

NO CHANGES MADE FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS. TWO
AREAS OF -SN ONE EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA AND THE OTHER BROADER
SNOW AREA WITH THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CNTRL INTO SE ND. ATTM RADAR AND OBS INDICATE PRETTY LIGHT
SNOW. BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS DO INCREASE PRECIP TOWARD 09Z IN SE
ND AND THEN MOVE IT TOWARD THE ALEXANDRIA AREA 12Z-15Z. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN A STRIP OF HIGEHR POPS THERE. UPDATED WX STORY TO MENTION
MAYBE UP TO 1 INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE POPS AS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH A SFC TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS ND. EARLY MORNING DEW POINTS WERE DRY ACROSS EASTERN
ND...AND WEAK ECHOES THAT STARTED OVER THE MINOT AREA HAVE
CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE FGF CWA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH
IS OVER SRN MB. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER SE SASK IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF ANY
MEASURABLE LIQUID (MELTED DOWN SNOW) IS VERY LOW. USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR POPS BUT DID CUT QPF AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY KEEP
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN TO AROUND AN INCH.

SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NW CWA...EXTENDING FROM
AROUND CANDO THROUGH CARRINGTON DOWN TO LINTON. TROUGH SHOULD
EXIT EASTERN CWA IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME TOMORROW MORNING.
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE ACROSS NW MN HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BRING A SHOT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS
WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS....WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN WE
SAW TODAY. THU NIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME MORE CLEARING WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A SECOND CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON FRI. 12Z MODEL RUNS
HAD THE SFC LOW AND SNOW A TAD FURTHER NORTH THAN PREV FCST...SO
HAVE SHIFTED LIGHT SNOW UP TO AROUND HWY 200. QPFS ARE A BIT
HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER....GENERALLY ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI NIGHT
AND SATURDAY COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS EASTERN ND WITH MID
TO UPPER 20S IN MN.

FOR SUN THROUGH WED...WE WILL BE IN NW FLOW AND VERY CLOSE TO A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH VERY COLD TEMPS NEAR US AND TO THE EAST
AND WARMER TO THE WEST. A CLIPPER WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
THERE WILL BE ABOUT 50KT TO MIX BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST
OF THE VALLEY WITH A PRONOUNCED ADIABATIC LAYER TO NEARLY 800MB. WE
HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WE WILL AT LEAST NEED A WIND HEADLINE WITH
SOME BLSN ISSUES POSSIBLE IF WE GET AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW. TEMPS
SHOULD COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
WARMER AIR MOVING BACK IN BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

NOT A SURPRISE BUT HAVE A VARIETY OF CEILINGS OUT THERE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING MVFR TO LOW END VFR
CIGS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF LOWER AND HIGHER CLOUD BASES. BEST CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW REST OF THE NIGHT IS FARGO AS THE LIGHT SNOW IN
BEMIDJI ENDS. WINDS GENERALLY TURNING OR MAINTAINING A WEST-
NORTHWEST DIRECTION...THOUGH MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE IN BJI AREA DUE
TO POSITION OF TROUGH THRU 12Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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