Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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216
FXUS63 KFGF 221000
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Expect the main impacts in today`s forecast to be light snow falling
on the northeast side of a clipper system rapidly moving from
western ND into eastern MN today. Light snow looks to start in the
Devils Lake basin this morning, spreading east and southeast through
the day. Higher confidence that main accumulations will be along and
north of the Highway 200 corridor, generally less than an inch, but
could see spotty light snow as far south as Interstate 94 and into
west central MN this afternoon. Additionally, cannot quite rule out
freezing drizzle along the back edge in north central MN as drier
mid level air moves in, but this looks less likely than previously
suggested.

Expect a wide range in temperatures today with highs from barely
reaching the 20s in snow covered northwest MN to the upper 30s in
the southern RRV. This will be highly dependent on cloud cover, but
with the low center passing through, winds will be lighter than
Tuesday and will gradually turn northerly behind the system.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Thanksgiving Day is now looking a bit warmer.  Warmer air is just
off to our west and latest model trends are to bring some of it
farther east.  Latest fcst temps show mostly 30s for the area with
40s along DVL-Valley City area.  Given the recent trends could see
the 40s push farther east.  No travel issues Thanksgiving Day.

Fridays system is interesting in that at first the main system
(surface low) is to our north but a 500 mb short wave will move
quickly east into eastern ND Friday morning and then into eastern
Minnesota Friday late afternoon.  As this system moves east it does
intensify a bit at 500 mb and help strengthen a surface low in
Ontario.  A fast moving area of precipitation with the short wave
likely and with quite warm temperatures aloft and at the surface
looks like any precipitation will be rain.  As low strengthens to
our northeast Friday afternoon do look for northwest winds to
increase and did up winds into the 30-45 mph range.

Dry weekend in store with near normal temps on Saturday then warmer
air moving in for Sunday.  Early next week, in particular Mon night
and Tuesday will show a 500 mb trough enter the Pac NW and northern
Rockies.  Long range models have been have issues with any storm
system coming out from this trough in terms of strength and
position.  That is not unexpected given 5-7 days out.  Will leave
blended model soln along which would be high chances of -sn over the
area Mon night into Tuesday.  Strength and amount of any snowfall
highly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Updated at 1149 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Generally VFR conditions should continue overnight with fair
skies and diminishing northwest winds. Winds will continue to
diminish and turn light and variable during the overnight.. then
increase from the south throughout the coming day. Areas of MVFR
CIGS and VSBYS are expected from late forenoon into the afternoon
midday... mainly along and north of the Highway 200 corridor...
along with areas of very light snow.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Gust



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