Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
307 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

A mild day ahead as winds turn southwest and then west as low
pressure slides southeast across Manitoba into NW Ontario. 850 mb
temps in the +3 To +8c range with good mixing should allow temps
to climb to mid 40s to low 50s snow free areas and upper 30s to
low 40s in snow areas. HIgh clouds will be present today, thickest
this morning. But do think sfc winds and mixing will be enough to
boost temps to anticipated highs.

By 00z Tues, low pressure will be just nort of Kenora Ontario.
Some light precipitation may skirt northern parts of Lake of the
Woods with rain/snow late today/early evening. As the low moves
east colder air will drop south along with a wind shift to the
northwest with wind speeds increasing to the 20 to 35 mph range.
There will likely be a bit of light snow/flurries mainly in NW MN
with some wraparound moisture behind the departing low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday... With northwest flow aloft and high pressure
at the surface Tuesday looks dry. The breezy conditions from Monday
will carry over into Tuesday and weaken by Tuesday night. The next
system moves in on Wednesday bringing with it a chance for snow and
maybe a wintry mix. This system looks like it will weaken as it
passes over our area so the better chances for precipitation are
farther west in North Dakota. There continues to be potential for a
wintry mix in the Devils Lake to Valley City corridor. There is also
some difference in model guidance as to how fast this system will
weaken as the ECMWF keeps it stronger for longer than the GFS.

Thanksgiving Day and Friday... Thanksgiving Day looks to be quiet
with high pressure across the area once again. The next system moves
in on Friday but there is still a lot of uncertainty. Model spread
is not as bad as it was in some previous runs but there is still a
significant difference in the location of the surface low. Rain and
snow totals at this time look to be minimal though for this first
post holiday travel day.

Saturday through Monday... Saturday morning could see some wrap
around snow showers in northern Minnesota but outside of this the
weekend looks to be rather dry as high pressure moves back in.
Monday currently looks dry but both the GFS and ECMWF have a clipper
nearby that will need to be monitored in future forecasts.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions as high clouds have been moving in from the
northwest. Light and variable winds will pick up out of the
southwest, eventually shifting to the west and then northwest and
increasing significantly. By the end of the period there will be
gusts over 20 kts as a cold front moves into the area. There could
be some lower clouds by tomorrow evening, although models have
pretty spotty coverage. Will keep ceilings low VFR for now but
will keep an eye on things.




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