Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
538 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Expect the main impacts in today`s forecast to be light snow falling
on the northeast side of a clipper system rapidly moving from
western ND into eastern MN today. Light snow looks to start in the
Devils Lake basin this morning, spreading east and southeast through
the day. Higher confidence that main accumulations will be along and
north of the Highway 200 corridor, generally less than an inch, but
could see spotty light snow as far south as Interstate 94 and into
west central MN this afternoon. Additionally, cannot quite rule out
freezing drizzle along the back edge in north central MN as drier
mid level air moves in, but this looks less likely than previously

Expect a wide range in temperatures today with highs from barely
reaching the 20s in snow covered northwest MN to the upper 30s in
the southern RRV. This will be highly dependent on cloud cover, but
with the low center passing through, winds will be lighter than
Tuesday and will gradually turn northerly behind the system.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Thanksgiving Day is now looking a bit warmer.  Warmer air is just
off to our west and latest model trends are to bring some of it
farther east.  Latest fcst temps show mostly 30s for the area with
40s along DVL-Valley City area.  Given the recent trends could see
the 40s push farther east.  No travel issues Thanksgiving Day.

Fridays system is interesting in that at first the main system
(surface low) is to our north but a 500 mb short wave will move
quickly east into eastern ND Friday morning and then into eastern
Minnesota Friday late afternoon.  As this system moves east it does
intensify a bit at 500 mb and help strengthen a surface low in
Ontario.  A fast moving area of precipitation with the short wave
likely and with quite warm temperatures aloft and at the surface
looks like any precipitation will be rain.  As low strengthens to
our northeast Friday afternoon do look for northwest winds to
increase and did up winds into the 30-45 mph range.

Dry weekend in store with near normal temps on Saturday then warmer
air moving in for Sunday.  Early next week, in particular Mon night
and Tuesday will show a 500 mb trough enter the Pac NW and northern
Rockies.  Long range models have been have issues with any storm
system coming out from this trough in terms of strength and
position.  That is not unexpected given 5-7 days out.  Will leave
blended model soln along which would be high chances of -sn over the
area Mon night into Tuesday.  Strength and amount of any snowfall
highly uncertain.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Expect low VFR cigs to spread east and southeast across the area
this morning. Could see MVFR cigs, and perhaps MVFR vsbys,
associated with light snow expected along and north of a DVL-
GFK- PKD line during late morning through the afternoon time
frame. Expect cigs to lift and dissipate and south winds to turn
northwest in late afternoon/evening.




LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...BP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.