Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181748
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

RAPIDLY CLREAING SKIES OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MN WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL TEMP GAINS THERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDY TO MOSTLYU CLOYUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE RED RIVER AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON... WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING A SLOW DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED YET THIS FORENOON. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DECK STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
WILL VERY SLOWLY ERODE AND SHIFT NOERTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SEE ONLY MODEST GAINS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
THINNING OF CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF THE
FA...BUT THE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE MORE CLOUDS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND TEMPS OVERALL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THEN NAM HAVING A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION NOW.

FOR TODAY...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD TRAP CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
EXPECTING A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN EDGES OF
THE FA AFTER 18Z...BUT CLOUDS COULD REMAIN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE VALLEY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE
CLOUDS...AND TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE
CLOUDS TO THIN BY 21Z.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL TEMP FALL FOR MOST AREAS WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10KT...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS NO DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SO
EXPECTING A DRY SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ON MONDAY...THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH THE NAM A BIT WARMER. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY THOUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MIXING
OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND PRODUCES MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS AND GEM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND DRIER. SEVERAL OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
SOME POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S UNDER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST
AND WEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CHALLENGING CLOUD COVER SCENARIO WITH ALL AIRFIELDS DRAPED UNDER
MVFR CIGS SAVE KDVL WHICH IS IFR. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW LIKELY
TO KEEP THESE CIGS INTACT THROUGH SUNDOWN. SIGNS OF EROSION EAST
OF FORECAST REGION SHOWING UP PRESENTLY...BUT BETTING THIS WON`T
GET TO KBJI FOR SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WIND FIELD WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH POSSIBLY SWINGING WINDS TOWARD WEST AT END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...WJB






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