Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231833

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1233 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Issued at 938 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Some areas have been slow to improve visibilities as patchy fog
continues from southeast ND into northwest Minnesota. Most areas
at worst seeing one half mile vsby, however a few locations have
dropped to one-quarter mile. Will expand mention of patchy fog
over next couple of hours. HRRR does rapidly improve vsbys aft 18Z
but in general is too worst-case when compared to current obs.
Expectation is as southerly winds increase, vsbys will improve.

Another focus for short term will be potential tonight for record
warm overnight lows. The record warmest minimum temperatures for
our climate locations are 33 deg for FAR, FGF and GFK.

UPDATE Issued at 704 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Low cloud area moving slowly east and clearing out of DVL
area..but has moved into TVF and will soon the BJI area. Areas of
fog around the edges of this cloud mass too....Valley City,
Gwinner and around Thief River Falls. Will maintain patchy fog for
a few more hours. Cloud trends today will play a huge role in
temps. For now no changes.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

500 mb ridge from southern california into montana today. One
short wave moving around the ridge with sfc low developing over
central Saskatchewan toward 00z fri. A lot of warm air 850-925 mb
layer moving in during the day...with peak warmth just abv the sfc
tonight. Question is how warm at the sfc in our area and cloud
cover. An area of low level moisture has been moving southeast and
slowly east thru eastern ND and will be moving into NW MN pre-
dawn. NAM12 and HRRR indicate this moist 925-850 mb layer will
gradually keep moving east today...but slowly so that much of NE
ND into NW MN may well stay in clouds today. This will limit
warming so idea of 30s for highs seem reasonable. In areas that
get more sun today and on the edge of a very warm airmass in the
western and south central ND will see temps push into the 50s. How
far east this gets is in question but latest HRRR shows this warm
air and a bit more of a southwest to west wind shift into Valley
City and far SW fcst area this aftn where 50s a good bet. Tight
thermal gradient no doubt will exit btwn Jamestown and Fargo and
Minot and Devils Lake. Mild tonight as enough wind to keep
temperatures from falling much...the higher terrain of the western
RRV may see temps rise some as very warm air exists at 925 mb
(+14 to +17C). Though mixing will be likely blo 925 mb.

Some chance of light rain late tonight as moisture ahead of a
short wave moves quickly east across northern half of ND.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Best chc of rain showers Friday moves into Minnesota and then
moves east of our area in the aftn. Temps safely above freezing so
just liquid and no travel concerns.

500mb ridge over the Rockies on Saturday will shift into the FA by
Sunday and Monday. Therefore the main question will be temps. On
Saturday the mildest 850mb temps remain closer to the ridge, but a
portion of the FA does rise above zero by 00z Sunday, but with
pretty weak surface winds. The GFS is much warmer than the
EC/Canadian at 850mb by 00z Monday, but all models are a little
warmer than Saturday. Once again, surface winds remain pretty weak.
These 850mb temperature differences continue into Monday as well,
with the GFS quicker in moving the thermal ridge east while the
EC/Canadian holds it over the FA for one more day. Boosted highs for
both Sunday and Monday warmer than what guidance came in with.

Kept some low chances for pcpn on Monday, although only the GFS
model shows any. Quite a bit of spread in model solutions from this
point into Wednesday. However, the GFS/EC have both come in dry for
Tuesday into early Wednesday. After coordinating with adjacent
offices, went ahead and removed the pcpn chances that had been in
the forecast. Overall uncertainty continues into later Wednesday,
but left the low chances of pcpn for that time period alone for now.
High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday drop back closer to normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Vsbys have improved as expected over the last hour however much of
northeast ND and northwest MN still under IFR deck, with is moving
south to north and FAR has cleared out. Do not expect TVF/BJI to
clear until this evening however GFK may clear out a bit sooner,
by mid aftn, than prev TAF indicated. Northward push of clear line
is a bit further north and 3H4-Hillsboro appears to have just
cleared on sat imagery.




LONG TERM...Godon/Riddle
AVIATION...Speicher is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.