Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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949
FXUS63 KFGF 180542
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1142 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1142 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

No real change with tonight`s final update then to tweak winds to
match ongoing obs. Temperatures continue to only fluctuate
slightly while staying relatively mild compared to last night.

UPDATE Issued at 947 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Temperatures continue to be the only real headache tonight.
Readings have been fluctuating up and down slightly throughout
the evening in response to the little bit of cloud cover and 10-15
kt winds (some obs slightly higher for brief periods). Winds will
gradually decrease a bit towards morning so still expect the
lowest readings towards morning. Nonetheless, overall a quiet
night continues.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Not much of an update needed early this evening. Hourly
temperatures still look pretty good but tweaked sky grids just a
bit with some high clouds continuing to move in. Will continue to
watch how relatively stronger winds affect temperatures throughout
the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Temperatures continue to be the main challenge for the period.

Another day where some spots in the CWA have struggled to see
warming temperatures as snowpack and colder air stubbornly hold on
beneath warming aloft. Just east of the Red River has not even
reached 20 degrees while areas in the pine trees have climbed into
the 30s. A shortwave trough moving across northern Manitoba will
move further east tonight, which will not have much of an effect
on us except for increasing the pressure gradient over the
Northern Plains. West to southwest winds will continue to bring
even warmer 925mb temps into the area, and there should be some
decent mixing. Some cirrus will also be moving into the area,
which could slightly decreasing outgoing radiation. All the model
solutions are very warm for tonight, with lows just barely below
our current highs. Think that mixing and warm air advection will
help, but did lean towards the cooler end of the models with mid
teens just east of the Red and some upper teens and 20s elsewhere.

The warm air advection and good mixing will continue into
tomorrow. Winds will help keep any morning fog formation at bay
so think full sunshine tomorrow should also help. Will continue to
keep highs in the 30s for Wednesday, but did lower the Hallock to
Ada area a couple of degrees to near 30 and raised highs a bit in
the pine tree area of the east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Good agreement continues with the overall synoptic scale
evolution through the forecast period. 500mb ridging will continue
through the work week with temps hinging on fog development and
clouds. Fog looks possible Thursday morning as 20+ degree dewpoint
air lifts north over the cold snow pack. Daytime highs will depend
on clouds and fog, will go with ensemble blends with the mid 30s
through the rest of the week and into the weekend as airmass temps
remain virtually unchanged. Over the weekend light precip chances
increase with a rain and snow mix, depending on the time of day,
as short wave energy undercuts the ridge.

Light chances for precipitation linger into Monday with above normal
temps continuing for the first part of next week as highs are
expected to be in the low 30s with lows in the 20s and upper teens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

Issued at 1142 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Good flying weather with VFR conditions continuing through the
period. Southwest winds of 10-15 kts (with some isolated 20-25 kt
gusts as just observed at KTVF) will continue overnight and
diminish slightly throughout the day on Wednesday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Lee



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