Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 070408
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1108 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EVENING UPDATE ADDRESSES SMOKE ALOFT AND SMOKE/HAZE AT SFC. LATEST
OBS SHOWING UNRESTRICTED VSBYS ACROSS THE CWA AND THE LATE EVENING
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME THIN SMOKE OVER SWRN HALF OF CWA JUST
SKIRTING RANSOM/SARGENT TO THEIR WEST AND SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WILL KEEP THAT AREA TO OUR SOUTH. H850 TO H500 WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN ARE MORE WESTERLY BUT TURN
NORTHERLY OVER MANITOBA AND SOME SMOKE AND THE FRONT EDGE OVER
ADVANCING SMOKE FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA IS REACHING LAKE MANITOBA.
HOWEVER...H700 WINDS TURN WESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING AND SHOULD
SLOW THE ADVANCEMENT OF THAT SMOKE OR BLOW IT INTO WRN ONTARIO.
WILL PULL SMOKE FOR TONIGHT AND BRING SOME BACK TO WRN ZONES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING...BUT CLEAR AFTER NOON DUE TO THE
SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WOULD BE IN THE
NORTHWEST OR ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE SMOKE IN MANITOBA ADVANCES
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CU FIELD OVER EASTERN ZONES IS STILL BKN-OVC AND LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FURTHER INTO EVENING THAN INHERITED GRIDS.
WILL UPDATE SKY AND MOVE THINGS OUT OF THE FAR NORTHEAST AROUND
04Z TO 05Z...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR WITHIN AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY BY 02Z. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MIDDAY HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH MOST OF OUR SMOKE AND
HAZE LAYERS WELL INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE
COOLER AND FRESHER AIR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH
CHANGING WIND FLOW IS ALREADY TRACKING SMOKE FROM SASKATCHEWAN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES AND CANADIAN FOREST FIRE SMOKE (AIR QUALITY) WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY TURN
FROM THE SOUTH...AND WITH GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ALOFT AND A
SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
PLEASANT. HOWEVER...THE NWS AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE
(AIRQUALITY.WEATHER.GOV) INDICATES THICKER SMOKE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY (SIMILAR DENSITY TO LAST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY)...AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST (THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING). VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL BE
CONFINED TO AVIATION...ALTHOUGH AIR QUALITY MAY AGAIN BE UNHEALTHY
(ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF TO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
VALLEY REGION BY EARLY MORNING. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MIDDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WITH THE FRONT. THOUGH AS FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STARTS OUT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. BY SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...MODELS ALL
HAVE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA. THE GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THE ECMWF LINGERS IT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY. QUITE A FEW OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS SHOW A WET
SOLUTION...SO WILL KEEP THE BLEND OF POPS WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. VFR
CIGS AROUND 5K FT VCNTY OF BJI WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT
AND ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY NOONTIME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GJG
LONG TERM...GJG/JR
AVIATION...SPEICHER


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