Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 010816
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS SFC LOW IS NOW WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH WEAKER. ALSO
SFC HIGH IS A BIT CLOSER OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. EXPECT FULL SUN
AND LIGHT WINDS. 925-850 MB TEMPS ARE A TAD WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY SO JUST A 1-3 DEG RISE IN HIGHS TODAY VS SATURDAY WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE NRN VALLEY. A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT.
UPSTREAM IS A SHORT WAVE OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN WHICH WILL DROP
SOUTH TOWARD NRN ND BY 12Z AND THEN THRU CNTRL ND MONDAY MORNING.
ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH WITH SOME LIGHT QPF BUT EVEN GFS SHOWS
A LITTLE BIT AND WPC DOES AS WELL IN CNTRL ND (AND MY WESTERN FCST
AREA) MAINLY 12Z-18Z MONDAY. CANADIAN RADARS SHOW SOME ECHOES WITH
WAVE AND OBS HAVE -RA AT STONY POINT SK. OVERALL FELT WORTHY OF
ADDING A VERY LOW POP LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR NW FCST AREA AND
THEN DURING THE MORNING IN DVL BASIN AND JUST WEST OF VALLEY CITY.
MOISTURE IS MID LEVEL BASED AND AIRMASS BELOW CLOUD BASE IS QUITE
DRY SO PROBABLY MORE VIRGA OR SPRINKLES. STILL MILD ON MONDAY AS
WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.



.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. A BIT COOLER FOR WED WITH HIGHS
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. COOLEST OF AIR STAYS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.
WARMING QUITE NICELY FOR THU-FRI AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND
HIGHS WARM INTO THE 70S IN MANY AREAS ON FRIDAY. RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A NRN STREAM
WAVE MOVING THRU CANADA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SOUTH TOWARDS KFAR. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT... CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST



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