Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 232356

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
656 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Cumulaform clouds will continue to decrease in coverage through
the evening. Temperatures on track so no changes.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

As the 500 mb low continues to move away from our area its
influence will fade with clearing likely to progress south and
east thru most of the fcst area tonight...though may take all
night to reach the far southeastern fcst area. Winds will lighten
up and with clear sky temperatures will drop tonight but lack of
low level dry air will prevent temps from dropping too greatly. A
few spots will get into the mid-upr 30s, esp in the Bemidji area,
but the time spent around 35 in that area will be 1-2 hours and
thus dont anticipate any frost issues on a widespread basis.
Evening shift can examine to see if risk is high and widespread
enough for advisory.

South-southeast sfc winds will increase Wednesday ahead of a cold
front which will enter eastern Montana Wed late aftn. Sunshine
for most of the day, though will see increasing high clouds spread
into northeastern ND. Warmer on Wednesday with highs 65-70 in
most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Frontal system will move east into eastern ND Thursday morning and
weaken and wash out in time as it moves east thru the RRV and into
NW MN Thursday. A band of clouds and showers with the front will
diminish in coverage as it moves east.

Friday will see west winds and temps nr normal as the upper
low/sfc low move slowly east into central Manitoba. Sufficient dry
air south of the upper low to limit any risk of aftn/eve showers
to the far north closer to the low.

Friday night through Tuesday...The models are in decent agreement on
the overall pattern of an upper trough moving across southern Canada
and the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes early in the weekend,
with north to northwesterly flow aloft behind it. The ECMWF is more
progressive with the trough axis moving east than the GFS, but all
have spotty QPF throughout most of the period with cyclonic flow
aloft and various weak shortwaves coming down the backside of the
upper trough. Timing of these features is impossible to nail down at
this point so will keep the blended POPs with 20-30 percent chances
for much of the period. Temperatures will be near to slightly below
seasonal averages through the holiday weekend and into early next


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Sct-Bkn VFR cloud cover will continue to decrease in coverage
through the evening and anticipating sct clouds by 06z region
wide. Remainder of the period VFR.




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