Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 270400
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MAN/SOUTHERN SASK
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NE BORDER TO THE CENTRAL SASK/ALTA BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT.

WIND CHILLS WERE RUNNING FROM 15 TO 28 BELOW AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
WITH FALLING TEMPS. WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 25 TO 35 BELOW BY
MORNING. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT LOW TEMP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TWEAKED LOWS UP IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE PEMBINA ESCARPMENT. ALSO
WINDS WERE TWEAKED UP FOR TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS DON`T CHANGE MUCH
WITH CHANGES.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AFTER 8 PM FOR MOST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EXCLUDING THE WOODS IN THE EAST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE AREA AND A CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM CANADA ON FRI. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




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