Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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474
FXUS63 KFGF 262018
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
318 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Main concern tonight will be the ongoing precipitation and winter
weather headlines.

As of 20z, surface low pressure was centered across central
Wisconsin with its associated deformation zone of precipitation
continuing to impact parts of eastern North Dakota and into
northwest Minnesota. Snowfall rates haven`t been terribly high
this afternoon with accumulations fairly slow to pile up,
especially on warmer road surfaces. Regardless, at least some
impacts are going to continue for the evening commute with
isolated slick spots on roads and pockets of lower visibility in
heavier bursts of snow.

By this evening, the main area of snow moves into northwest
Minnesota. The latest global models (in addition to recent hi-res
runs) depict a little bit more QPF/snow than yesterday and last
night`s runs. Most are in decent agreement with around 0.20-0.25" of
liquid with the NAM as a bit of an outlier with higher amounts.
Higher amounts aren`t completely out of the question as the band of
snow will move pretty slowly this evening and into the early
overnight. However, snowfall rates will have to get pretty intense
to start accumulating a lot on the warmer roads. Regardless, things
will need to be monitored as we head into the evening and if
headlines will need to be expanded northward at all.

Some lingering snow showers might stick around far northeastern
portions of the area early on Thursday before surface ridging builds
in with a mostly dry day expected. Temperatures will finally begin
to rebound a bit across the west near the ridge axis with readings
into the 40s, but remain a bit colder in the 30s in the far east as
the previous system slowly pulls away.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The last remnants of the surface low continues to track northeast
with high pressure sliding in behind. Otherwise...the upper level
pattern continues in a general split flow regime...with the stronger
stream crossing the southern plains and carving out a broad upper
trof.

By the weekend...temperatures will rebound to more seasonal values
with more tranquil weather.

For Monday...another area of surface low pressure will lift
northeast toward the Great Lakes.  Models indicate the main area of
precipitation will be across the southeast portion of the forecast
area...although there may be some variance in amounts depending on
the exact track. The pattern remains unsettled through the rest of
the period as series of disturbances cross the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

MVFR conditions with some isolated pockets of IFR ceilings to
continue throughout the period. As of issuance time, the main snow
band has shifted just west of KFAR but continues to impact KGFK,
KTVF, and KBJI. Visibilities could drop to 1SM or less in the
heaviest bursts but should mainly be in the 3-5SM range in
-SN. Precipitation will begin to move out of the area by this
evening from west to east but MVFR ceilings will remain. North
winds of 20-25 kts will continue throughout the afternoon before
dropping more into the 10-15 kt range this evening and overnight.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ038-
     039-049-052.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-
     003-009-015>017-022>024-027-028-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...BH
AVIATION...Lee



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