Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250442
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1142 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Just some minor pop adjustments to line up better with the
neighbors.  No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 924 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Showers confined to the far NW corner of the forecast area. Based
on high resolution model guidance the best chances for showers
across the far north will be later tonight when secondary cold
front swings through. Current pops/temps seem reasonable so no
changes planned.

UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Isolated sprinkles/shra moving into the far NW FA attm. Latest
guidance maintains isold shra however mainly along the
international border through the evening. Will hold with current
pops for now but will monitor trends for late evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Wind and showers remain the main forecast challenge for the short
term. As of 3 pm, the 500mb low remained over southwest Manitoba,
helping to spread quite a bit of cloud cover across the FA. This
low will track slowly across southern Manitoba tonight and into
southwest Ontario on Thursday morning. Therefore areas closer to
the Canadian border will see the most cloud cover and a few
showers tonight into Thursday, while areas further south will see
the least cloud cover and fewer or no showers. Gusty west winds
will continue into the evening, then die down somewhat overnight,
before increasing again Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Dry weather will continue through mid-day Friday before long wave
troughing will develops a SW flow pattern aloft by Friday afternoon
while moisture flux from the Gulf of Mexico increase PWATs across
the northern tier.  An unsettled pattern then brings Friday night
showers and scattered storms on Saturday as high pressure moves out
of the region and an upper wave moves across the Dakotas.  More
zonal pattern develops and brings dry and warm weather for
Sunday/Monday with short wave ridging aloft.  A wave then moves
across southern Canada Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a chance
for showers and storms across the northern zones adjacent to the
international border.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Secondary cold front will swing through the fa later tonight and
into Thursday. Fropa will bring better chance for shra across the
far north. Will also see mainly MVFR cigs in the am along and
behind the boundary. Cigs should lift into VFR range by afternoon.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Voelker


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