Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 041556
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
956 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH HOW MUCH TEMPS RISE TODAY WITH COLD POOL AND CU EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. WILL MONITOR TEMP TRENDS THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FA
TODAY. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY PRETTY SPOTTY HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
HINTING AT SOME SC DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BLO ZERO. IF SO EVEN WITH WARMER START THAN EXPECTED
SINGLE DIGITS MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO.

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE FA THIS EVENING AND WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF PRETTY QUICK. AS HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH
TOWARDS MORNING RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION MAY LEVEL OFF
TEMPERATURES. STILL WILL BE COLD NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NEED W
CHILL HEADLINES AGAIN...HOPEFULLY ONE OF THE LAST.

WARMUP STARTS THURSDAY WITH BRISK SOUTHERLY WIND AND CONTINUED
WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE LONE MODEL WITH QPF ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY REACH OR EXCEED AVERAGES ON FRIDAY
WITH THAWING READINGS POSSIBLE.

A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE DROPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SO INTRODUCED
SOME LOW POPS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE RETURN
TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST TO MORE OF WEST-NW FLOW. WILL BE DEALING WITH TRADITIONAL
SNOW MELT ISSUES LIKE FOG/WIND SPEEDS/WIND DIRECTIONS WHICH ALWAYS
HAVE BIG EFFECTS ON DAY TO DAY TEMPS AND ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT
THIS FAR OUT. PCPN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY WEAK BUT REMAIN BEST SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN SFC LOW STAYS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE IN COLD AIRMASS HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE POCKETS
OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITHIN MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE FA TODAY. COLD CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SO COULD
SEE ON AND OFF CIGS DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






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