Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1237 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

12Z NAM/GEM and 09Z SREF showing some warm advection shra/tsra
developing over w cntrl MN in the 21Z Tue to 00Z Wed timeframe
(ahead of line of main activity still well to the west at this
time). With latest ECAM guidance now showing some low POPs as
well, will introduce isold/sct activity in the area aft 21Z
tomorrow aftn.

UPDATE Issued at 938 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

High pressure over the area bringing clear skies however nw flow
aloft over far northeast is brining some clouds down over Lake of
the Woods/Roseau/Beltrami county region so have increased sky
accordingly. No changes to afternoon highs.

UPDATE Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Minimal changes needed for the update this morning. Adjustments
confined to matching the temp, wind and sky trends.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Minimal weather impacts today as a cool Canadian high pressure
brings light winds and a dry airmass to the northern plains. Full
solar this morning will generate some fair weather CU across the
eastern half of the FA as temps rise into the 70s in all but a
few treed Minnesota locales. As the SFC high slides to the
southeast the winds will turn back to the south during the
overnight. Temps will stay up with increased mixing with lows
Tuesday morning around 50F, 10 degrees higher than this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Breezy south winds will develop Tuesday with boundary layer
responding to broad area of low pressure across the western
Dakotas. These south winds will bring a warmer airmass to the
area and combined with full solar highs will be in the 80s across
portions of eastern ND and upper 70s elsewhere. To the west SFC
low pressure will initiate thunderstorms in an axis instability
Tuesday afternoon. Models indicate around better than 2000J/kg of
most unstable CAPE with shear values of 30 to 40 kts allowing for
an organized convective complex to develop. As the activity
approaches the forecast area Tuesday evening the primary concern
will be the possibility for 60mph damaging winds and hail up to an
inch in size. Activity is expected to decrease in intensity as it
moves east into more stable airmass early Wednesday.

Widespread rainfall is expected with the mature convective system
with convection continuing during the day Wednesday as SFC low
pressure slowly moves across the FA under a strengthening upper
wave with Pwats above and inch and a half. Model ensembles
showing widespread quarter to half inch of rainfall with localized
half to one inch amounts expected. Placement of the higher amounts
will be tied to the low pressure track.

Thursday to Sunday...
Split flow remains across North America with northern stream over
eastern Canada and southern stream over the northern states. Long
wave trough over eastern Canada moves over Greenland. Long wave
ridge over the Northwest Territories retrogrades into the Yukon.
Overall pattern de-amplifies.  The southern stream becomes dominate
with short waves moving through the flow.

The ECMWF was a faster solution than the GFS

Little change to high temperatures through the period from yesterday


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

VFR with breezy southerly winds beginning to increase tomorrow




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