Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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249
FXUS63 KFGF 170323 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
923 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Issued Dense Fog Advisory to account for persistent dense fog in
portions of northwest MN. Models seem to have a much better handle
on current conditions now and still suggest fog spreading further
into portions of the southern valley and northwest and west
central Minnesota overnight. Adjusted low temperatures down even
further as low level saturation and fog development are driving
temperatures and dew points down further in the northern valley.

UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Light freezing drizzle expected to continue in the Lake of the
Woods area for another few hours as weak upper energy moves out to
the east. Also issued a statement for patchy dense fog developing
in the northern valley. High resolution model guidance suggests
high pressure building in will cause areas of fog to continue
developing this evening along the valley. It is looking
increasingly likely that fog will intensify and spread across
much of northwest and west central Minnesota overnight and into
the early morning, so will continue to monitor development closely
over the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 137 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Quiet weather since noon today with two sites across Roseau county
still reporting light snow and BDE ASOS reporting icing however no
precip at current time...thus some concern for light drizzle but
would not expect impacts given already wet/snow packed roads.

Focus turns to overnight lows and clearing tonight as much of
central and wrn ND clear in the low/mid levels. Should allow
northwestern zones to cool into the mid teens. Sfc boundary
associated w/ warm front remains near stationary over valley
tonight and which should keep NE zones in the mid teens as well as
they barely broke the 20 mark this afternoon.

More sunshine still expected on Sunday with areas west of the
valley around or just above freezing in all but far northeastern
ND, which will remain in the mid to upper 20. Warmest temps will
be from Valley City to Lisbon and may rise into the upper 30s.
Short term will be dry after remaining light activity around Lake
of the Woods moves out of the area over the next couple of hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 137 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Monday-Tuesday...With zonal flow set up, a stronger system will be
propagating across central Canada. An associated surface trough/jet
streak will bring a chance for precipitation to mainly the northern
FA on Monday (likely snow, trace amounts). Then, a cold front will
bring windy conditions Monday night/Tuesday. Winds aloft are very
strong, but weak cold air advection and nighttime fropa will limit
mixing potential. Do not expect much for impacts.

Wednesday...Models in agreement depicting an overrunning/warm air
advection snowfall event, but not in agreement with the location.
Models indicate banded snowfall potential (mid-level frontogenesis),
although its difficult to say how organized the banding might be.
Risk area for snowfall is the entire forecast area into South
Dakota/southern Minnesota. Its important to note that only 1/3 to
1/2 of this risk area will receive snowfall (i.e. if SFC high is
stronger, main risk area may shift south of the region). Each model
indicates 0.4 to 0.5 inches QPF within their heaviest area, which
given expected snow ratios equates to 6+ inches of snow (along with
banding potential). Main message is the potential for significant
snowfall somewhere across the region, but details such as location
and snowfall amounts still very uncertain.

Thursday-Saturday...A much colder airmass follows the Wednesday
system. Lowered model blend forecasts considerably to align with
analog guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Cigs are clearing from west to east as drier air aloft. With high
pressure building through, expect fog to develop along and east of
the Red River Valley overnight. This will mostly be patches of
MVFR to LIFR vsbys and cigs along the valley (FAR-GFK). Further
east in a TVF-BJI-PKD area, more widespread fog is expected to
develop overnight with mainly IFR to LIFR vsbys and cigs and
persist through at least early morning.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for MNZ001-002-007-008-
     013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...BP



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