Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180633
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
133 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Increased thunderstorm potential for this morning into the early
afternoon hours across southeast North Dakota and west central
Minnesota. Mid-level boundary remains across this region, with
MUCAPE still aoa 2000 J/Kg. Forcing from an approaching upper wave
should increase thunderstorm coverage along this elevated
boundary toward sunrise. Current CAM guidance supports this
thinking. Deep layer shear is strong, and a few stronger storms
will be possible (hail the main impact).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Expecting convective initiation 20-22z time frame as any cap
eroding and airmass continues to destabilize with around 5 more
degrees to reach convective temperatures. CAMs seem to have a
relatively good handle on expected outcome and makes sense
considering current conditions and expected frontal position.
Prime area for severe storms likely along and south of a Lisbon-
FAR- BJI line. Large hail and damaging winds main concern however
a little concerned with mini surface low over far se ND and
tornado potential so will be watching this area close. Convection
should propagate e-se through early evening so does not look like
a long lived event. More uncertain about later tonight as CAMs
farther north with next batch of shra/tsra associated with exit
region/nose of another jet streak.

Pop location across the south will be the main challenge for
tomorrow. Otherwise drier and cooler airmass working into the fa
should keep severe threat to our south. Generally kept pops along
and south of I94 for now. Temperatures will be at or a few degrees
blo seasonal averages.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Surface high pressure is in control to start the period as the
upper pattern becomes more zonal and the jet sets up along the
international border. Models indicate a few waves propagating
through the flow...and the resultant instability will bring
chances for more precipitation on Wednesday...then again late
Friday and into Saturday. Temperatures for the remainder of the
period should be more seasonable...with highs in the 80s and lows
in the lower 60s through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period widely
scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible along and
south of the interstate 94 corridor from 14z to 18z in southeast
ND... and from 17z til 21z in west central MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Gust



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