Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 311805
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
105 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

COLD FRONT MOVING EAST INTO NW MN. WINDS NORTHWEST TO 20 MPH
BEHIND IT AND DEW POINTS LOWERING. BAND OF CLOUDS WITH FRONT
MOVING EAST WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST HOWEVER FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND IT. AS EXPECTED ANY
PRECIP WITH FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH NIL...BUT BASED ON ABR REPORTS OF
SOME SPRINKLES IN ABERDEEN PRIOR TO NOON WILL KEEP AN ISOLD RW-
ALONG SD BORDER THRU THE AFTN. DRY OTHER AREAS. TEMPS APPEAR OK
AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MONTANA. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE WAVE OVER
EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TODAY.
MUCH OF THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL MOVE INTO CANADA WITH THE
UPPER WAVE...JUST GLANCING PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER.
AFTER THIS PUSHES THROUGH BY MID-MORNING...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH THE BOUNDARY
AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT WITH WEAKENING SFC CONVERGENCE AND WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPS...NOT CONFIDENT IN ANY PRECIP. MOST GUIDANCE IS
DRY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN VERY WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS/ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TUE
NIGHT WITHIN ENHANCED 700-850 MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THE 00Z
NAM SHOWS AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE ALONG WITH 20-30 KTS OF DEEP
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...PLACEMENT AND EVEN INITIATION OF
ELEVATED STORMS IN THESE WARM ADVECTION REGIMES TENDS TO BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...SO JUST KEPT LOW POPS TUE NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND MOIST AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS MAY REACH NEAR 90 IN SPOTS...NEARLY 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THU THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD BEGINNING THU
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP...AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF DEEP TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
TIMING AND OVERALL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT APPEARS SUFFICIENT AT
TIMES. TEMPS SHOULD START ABOVE NORMAL AND TREND BELOW NORMAL BY
SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 HUNDRED FT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MN
TO BETWEEN GFK AND FAR. CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING TO THE EAST ABOUT 20
KNOTS. ALSO A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND EXTENDED
ROUGHLY FROM EAST OF HCO TO EAST OF VALLEY CITY ND. EXPECTED MVFR
CIGS TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST/WEST AT 15 TO 30 MPH. SOUTH FLOW WILL RETURN FOR
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A CLEAR SKY WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
AREA AND CLEARING WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...DK/JAM
AVIATION...HOPPES


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