Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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112
FXUS63 KFGF 181754
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1254 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

CLEARING VERY SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST FA. HOWEVER RADAR
RETURNS CONTINUE TO DECREASE SO WILL ELIMINATE MOST PCPN CHANCES
TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS SHOW ANY REMAINING
PCPN BEING VERY LIGHT...SO WILL TRANSITION TO THE WORDING OF LIGHT
RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
REALLY NOT EXPECTING ANY FURTHER ACCUMULATION THERE. CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY A LITTLE BIT AGO AS THE WIND SPEEDS WERE MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
TEMPERATURES. AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW...RAIN
...SNOW...AND SOME SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THIS MORNING.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL. WILL KEEP WSW GOING FOR DVL BASIN UNTIL 7 AM...PRIMARILY
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY IN THE
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA PER THE NAM AND HRRR...WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING BANDS BEYOND THAT. TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
RISING WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY. WILL LIKELY SEE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS DROP INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE. THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGH PRESSURE WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH
SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FA...WITH MOST AREAS
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS...AND BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

CLEARING OF THE MVFR STRATOCU DECK IS THE MAIN ISSUE. USED
RAP/GFS TIMING OF CLEARING 850 MB MOISTURE AS A GUIDE. THIS BRINGS
CLEARING TO DVL MID AFTERNOON...THEN INTO GRAND FORKS BY 06Z AND
THEN WORKING SOUTH AND EAST BY BJI-FAR LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY BUT DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSED SMALLER TRIBUTARIES TO RISE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS FORECAST TO
RISE INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE...WITH SEVERAL OTHER FORECAST POINTS IN
THE VALLEY IN ACTION STAGE. THERE HAS BEEN UPWARDS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN IN WADENA COUNTY...AND AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT HERE. THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPS...THAT SHOULD CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...DK



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