Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 202158

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
358 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

The main challenges and impacts through the short term will again
be fog/dz/fzdz potential and any measurable pcpn potential across
the far north tonight and region wide tomorrow. Short range/high
resolution model solutions in good agreement and will follow for

Upper low to continue to drift north through ND tonight.  Band of
radar returns over the NE FA in zone of deeper layered rh in warm
conveyer belt should also continue to lift north and affect mainly
areas along the Mn International border area this evening. This
area stands to see the best potential for some mixed pcpn.
Temperatures remain in the mid/upper 30s and not likely to fall
off too far so not anticipating any significant travel issues.
Elsewhere mid levels remain relatively dry so fog and the
potential for dz/fzdz will continue overnight. At this point not
very confident on dense fog but will need to monitor. Modest isentropic
lift tonight exists from the valley east so this would appear to
be the favored location for dz/fzdz overnight. The column does
cool some overnight so minimum temperatures expected to range a
few degrees either side of freezing. With cooler temperatures
potential for difficult travel for fzdz will have to be monitored.

Not much change for Saturday. Maintained general chance pops as
tough to pin down any particular area favorable for mixed pcpn.
Column does not really moisten much so may be another day of fog
and some form of drizzle vs -ra/sn/zr. Also best forcing with next
wave looks to be to our south and east. Temperatures expected to
range a few degrees above freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

A mainly stagnant pattern remains in place over the area to start
the period.  Cloudy skies are expected to continue as the low levels
remain moist due to above freezing temperatures and snow melt. A
weak upper level trof may trigger light precipitation accumulations.
With the warmer surface and boundary layer temperatures...look for
the main precipitation types to be rain or drizzle. Cooler
temperatures forecast in the Devils Lake Basin may result in some
light freezing precipitation in that area.

A system will impact parts of the region as the upper pattern begins
to shift with more southwest flow aloft.  This system is expected to
develop over the central plains on Monday...and model guidance keeps
the track farther south of the area as it moves northeast on
Tuesday. The system will skirt the far southeastern zones on Tuesday
bringing some light snow. An inverted trof may spread a bit more
light snow across the rest of the area through Tuesday night into
Wednesday. At this point...accumulations will be light.

Behind the system...temps will cool a bit but overall temperatures
will trend above seasonal norms.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Other than a small area of mvfr cigs over the NE FA IFR cigs to
continue through the period. VSBY varies quite a bit across the Fa
from a quarter mile to p6sm. Taf forecast sites generally in the
MVFR-VFr range and expect that to continue with some lowering
possible tonight.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Voelker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.