Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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055 FXUS63 KFGF 300343 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1043 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple systems will bring periods of rain to the region Tuesday afternoon and again later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Upper low spinning over central MN continues to lift northeastward this afternoon, and should be in Ontario by tonight. This should allow some brief ridging to move in between systems. Weak surface ridging over the CWA will slowly give way so southeasterly winds at least on the ND side. Could see a bit of patchy fog/mist development even if clouds linger given recent visibility trends, although probabilities of less than a half a mile are under 10 percent. The quiet conditions will be short lived as another upper low moves into the northern Rockies tomorrow and ejects a strong lead shortwave into the eastern Plains. Southeasterly winds ahead of the surface trough should bring at least some marginally warmer temperatures tomorrow afternoon, and some of the ensemble members bring some CAPE up to 500 J/kg into our west central MN counties, but most are lower. There is the threat of some lightning impacts but all the updraft helicity tracks are well to our south and think our chances of seeing any stronger convection are less than 10 percent. The rain will lift northeastward into Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, with another quick break in precip rounds expected for mid-week. Thursday into Friday, the upper trough over the Rockies starts to kick out into the Plains and then lift off into Canada. There is still quite a bit of variation in the exact track of how the ensemble members handle the low. Probabilities of at least a quarter of an inch of rain are 30 to 40 percent across most of the CWA, so it seems like there will be a good chance for another wetting rain. For the weekend and into Monday, there continues to be a signal for a fairly active pattern, but timing is all over the place. One cluster is showing a trough at the same time as another cluster a ridge over the Plains. Thus, will keep the 20-30 POPs and near average temps the mean gives us. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1043 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Conditions are a mix of VFR and MVFR as the showers are stopping for the night. There are still scattered layers between 1000 and 3000ft. These lower layers have trended to form a broken cieling and then scatter out a few hours later. There is still some fog development but it hasn`t persisted past a few hours. Closer to sunrise the fog may develop and persist as some of the models have shown but still not confident if the atmosphere will remain stable enough ahead of the system approaching this afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...MM