Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 212123
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER (MAIN RESULT WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER).
THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BE WASHED OUT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AGAIN DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA) THAN TODAYS...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD
REGARDING HOW THE UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...BUT COULD STILL
ACT TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THIS REGION.
THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INDICATES A BAND OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB CONVERGENCE/DEFORMATION. IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR...IT COULD BE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET GIVEN THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. DID INCLUDE A SCHC FOR MIXED PRECIP...BUT WITH
OTHER MODELS DRY (SLOWER) CANNOT GO WITH HIGHER POPS. THE UPPER
LOW THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...ANTICIPATE STRONG N/NW WINDS ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS. AS OF NOW...WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY SHOULD BE
30-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS (GIVEN EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WIND SPEEDS ALOFT). THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. ANY SNOW-PACK CURRENTLY ON THE
GROUND WILL NOT BE BLOW-ABLE WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE DAY TODAY...SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY. SO...HOW
MUCH SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS WILL DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD THE BLOWING
SNOW IS DURING THIS PERIOD. STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORCING OVER THIS
REGION THINKING 1-2 INCHES AT MOST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER (ALTHOUGH GFS INDICATES A STRONGER SYSTEM AND HIGHER QPF).
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT THE CURRENT MENTION IN THE HWO AND
WEATHER STORY SEEMS LIKE THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS AT THIS MOMENT
IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FCST AREA ON THE COLD SIDE. CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH.
COLDEST AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY. MODERATION OCCURS FRIDAY BUT LONG RANGE MODELS KEEP AREA
NEAR THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN COLD NORTH AND WARMER
SOUTHWEST. 12Z GFS/ECMWF SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BLENDS WELL
WITH BLENDED MODEL DATA PROCEDURE. GOOD NEWS IS NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM FOR THE THANKSGIVING DAY TRAVEL PERIOD LOCALLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 06Z WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND MID
CLOUD.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS WILL OCCUR TODAY DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING.  A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR A TAD
SOUTH OF IT BY 12Z SAT.  RAP AND SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME
MVFR CIGS PSBL NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN ND AND FAR
NORTHERN MN MOSTLY 12-18Z SATURDAY PERIOD. UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH
MVFR CIGS WILL GET HOWEVER.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS LOWER CLOUDS IN
EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. 859-925 MB WINDS WOULD SUGGEST THE TARGET
AREA FOR THOSE WILL BE IOWA....SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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