Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 021430
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRESHENED UP NEAR TERM FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA. LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MANY HAIL REPORTS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS MORNINGS STORMS. LARGEST HAIL WAS 2.5 INCHES EARLY THIS
MORNING IN OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. REST OF THE DAY WILL
ONLY HAVE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING BEHIND UPPER WAVE...
WITH COOLER HIGHS THAN YESTERDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WESTERN EDGE OF STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AROUND 530-6 AM AS IT
MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50 KTS NOTED ON SPC MESO PAGE FARGO-DTL-WADENA AREA. UDPATED TO
ADD POPS INTO WADENA AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES FOR 2-3 HOURS AND
REMOVED POPS FROM GFK-CKN-BDE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CU AND AC BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT A NORTH WIND 8 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OR SO IN THE RRV AND E ND. WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT TAF SITES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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