Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 130302

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1002 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Issued at 1001 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Decreased low temp in the northwest zones while increase low a
degree or two in the southeast zones. Removed pops from the
forecast for tonight. No other changes at this update.

UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Upper level jet was nosing into the area and producing clouds and
a few weak returns off the radar. Few showers may develop over the
eastern zones this evening.Precipitable water was around 3/4 of an
inch on the MN side and will decrease to around 1/4 inch by
morning. Some mid level warm advection will move into the area Fri
and produce clouds mainly over the northern Red River Valley.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Fairly quiet for this portion of the forecast. The cold front will
continue to move through the FA tonight. Piece of jet energy
moving into northwest MN this evening may combine with the front
to produce a few light showers over northwest MN. Otherwise expect
clearing skies and some chilly temperatures by morning. Looking
for quite a bit of sun on Friday with much lower wind speeds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

The next system will begin to move into the western FA Fri night
into Sat morning. Temperatures look to stay warm enough to keep
this pcpn mainly in liquid form yet. However, some spots along the
Canadian border in the Devils Lake region could see a few flakes
of snow mixed in. The main effects from the next system will hold
off until Sat afternoon into Saturday evening. Then the models
seem to be in decent agreement in depicting the best chances for
pcpn being from southeast ND over into west central MN. Temps
during this time frame look warm enough for this pcpn to also stay
in liquid form. The main question is how fast the pcpn will then
exit to the east in the late Sat night time frame (06z- 12z
Sunday), when the coldest 925mb temps arrive. Therefore, if the
pcpn lingers longer, there would be a better potential for a light
snow accumulation. A quicker exit could mean no changeover at all
from rain to snow. Either way, the area in question would be for
areas east of the Red River Valley. Sunday looks dry with a little
more sun again.

For Sun night through Thursday...Mon through Thu looks to be a
tranquil weather period as a Pacific trough gradually moves inland
by the end of the period with ridging developing over the eastern
half of the nation. Locally, zonal flow will prevail with just
the hint of a short wave briskly traversing the Canadian prairie
landscape about Wed. Right now this would appear to be the only
feature capable of generating any sensible weather during this
time frame. Operational and ensemble guidance products are in
decent agreement suggesting a dearth of precipitation as a dry
fcst is maintained for the duration. Temps will run a few degrees
above average during the day and even more so at night.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Cigs around 40 to 50 hundred ft were across much of the area. A
clear sky was over western ND. Expect these cigs to shift off to
the north and east tonight. A mostly clear sky is expected later
tonight. Another batch of clouds are expected Fri with cigs around
70 hundred ft in the northern valley.




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