Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 290851
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
351 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Fog has been much less of an issue tonight than the last few
nights due to cloud cover and at least a little bit of wind.
However, some sites in the recent snow melt areas (mainly across
the Devils Lake basin and extreme northern Red River Valley) have
seen visibilities drop a bit in the last hour or two. Therefore,
did go ahead and throw in some patchy fog mention into the
forecast for these areas in case visibilities dip even a bit
lower towards morning. HRRR low level RH profiles have a decent
handle on the current conditions and show things improving by mid
to late morning.

Following any fog headaches, the next issue for the day will be the
possibility of any precipitation chances. With a split flow
pattern continuing across the CONUS, a deep upper low is expected
to propagate across the southern portion of the country while a
shortwave is progged to pass through the northern stream and
across the Northern Plains. Water vapor imagery depicts this wave
currently located across western North Dakota with hi-res models
moving this wave east/northeast into the northwestern forecast
area and skirting along the international border. Therefore, the
best forcing with this wave (although pretty weak) looks to bring
precipitation chances into the far western Devils Lake basin by
this afternoon and gradually shift them east/northeast towards the
far northern valley. Not expecting much impact-wise, or even for
accumulation, as temperatures will be well above freezing. As for
highs today, did bump them up a few degrees from the previous
forecast due to quite an increase in 925/850 mb warm advection as
compared to Tuesday. Expect conditions to finally warm into the
50s in the more snow affected areas across the far northwest while
hitting the 60 mark appears very possible for many locations
elsewhere.

Another mild night tonight with readings remaining in the mid to
upper 30s as modest southerly flow remains in place. Winds should
also keep any fog at bay.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Brief upper ridging will build in Thursday keeping any
precipitation chances out of the area. It should be a bit cooler
than Wednesday, although still well above average, as low level
warm advection backs off a bit. By Friday, another upper wave and
associated weak cold front look to sweep through the forecast
area as the upper ridge weakens. Another chance for precipitation
will move from west to east with this feature Friday and into
early Saturday, but once again, impacts should be fairly minimal
with any precipitation being relatively light and mostly rain
(except for maybe a few hours of some snow mixed in late Friday
night/early Saturday morning).

Overall the Saturday through Tuesday period looks to remain mild
with no big weather systems. The 500 mb pattern shows one
stronger low tracking across the southern plains Saturday through
Monday, followed by another on Tuesday. This will keep the
majority of the pcpn well south of the FA, with anything up in the
northern plains being minimal. The highest guidance pcpn chances
arrive on Tuesday, but models are quite divergent in solutions
then, so confidence in much of anything remains low.

Temperatures look to stay well above normal with highs generally
ranging in the 50s. The melt will continue at night too, with low
temperatures mainly staying above freezing. At this point, Sunday
looks like the mildest day, with models showing steady SSW to SW
winds and the warmest 850mb temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

VFR thru the pd. Could be spotty light fog overnight/Wednesday
dawn. Winds turning south-southeast and increasing a bit Wed
midday-aftn. Bit more wind speed that the past few days, in the
10-20 kt range in E ND and RRV.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Many of the hydrographs continue to show a diurnal trend, or rising
during the day hours with a slow down at night. This is due to the
temperatures rising nicely during the day, but falling below
freezing again at night. Low temperatures tonight through late week
look to remain above freezing at night, so this may not continue.
Otherwise the snow melt continues for areas that still have snow.
Received one field report Tuesday evening from Cando, where it was
reported that 75 percent of the area was open with 25 percent still
snow covered. Most of the remaining snow was contained in drifts or
sheltered areas.

Speaking of some of the specific river flood points, the forecast at
Grafton is still calling for a crest of 14.5 to 16 feet (4700-6200
cfs) around April 1. The Red River continues to rise north of Grand
Forks, with Pembina expected to reach 43 to 45 feet around April 3.
Hallock also remains in minor flood stage and is expected to remain
fairly steady through the rest of the week.

Melting continues across the Pembina River basin, with both Walhalla
and Neche already approaching action stage. Forecasts from Tuesday
noted that the melt rates in this area were progressing faster than
expected. These forecasts currently show Walhalla reaching minor
flood stage and Neche rising into moderate flood stage, both by late
this week into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Lee/Godon
AVIATION...Riddle
HYDROLOGY...Godon



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