353
FXUS65 KFGZ 070310
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
810 PM MST Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain cool with dry conditions and
breezy afternoons through the rest of the week. Ridging returns over
the weekend with warmer temperatures expected.

&&

.UPDATE...Look for a few high clouds, light winds and a crisp
overnight temperatures all in line with the current forecast
package with no evening update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /443 PM MST/...The low pressure system that brought
last night`s weather continues to push away from Arizona this
afternoon as it makes its way into the Northern Plains states. In
it`s wake, a cool and breezy day is underway across northern
Arizona.

While yesterday`s low continues to wobble around the northern
plains states over the next few days, a longwave trough settles in
across much of the west through the end of this week and early
part of the weekend. The will keep temperatures near to below
normal most days. Another wave feature and associated cold front
will rotate through the long wave trough Tuesday which will
tighten pressure gradients across Arizona. Wind speeds will
increase enough to warrant a wind advisory and some low elevation
red flag warnings for northeastern Arizona where the strongest
gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected. Wind directions will be more
westerly on Tuesday as opposed to the predominate southwesterly we
usually see this time of year. A few pockets of blowing dust will
also be possible in the Little Colorado River and Chinle Valleys.

As the upper level low sags southward and into Arizona from
Wednesday through Saturday, we can expect much less wind. A few
showers cannot be ruled out and there`s a 10-20% chance from
Friday through Sunday mainly across Apache County and 4 Corners
areas. The bulk of the forecast area looks to remain dry, but
there is some indication among ensemble member solutions for a
slightly deeper low developing which could increases these
chances
- something to keep an eye on.

High pressure looks to dominate the weather pattern by Sunday with
a warming trend expected to begin.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 07/00Z through Wednesday 08/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions through the TAF period. Winds will decrease this
evening, then become quite strong on Tuesday with west winds
gusting 30-40kts. The strongest winds north and east of a KGCN-
KFLG-KSOW line.


OUTLOOK...Wednesday 08/00Z through Friday 10/00Z...VFR conditions
should persist through the outlook period, with seasonal afternoon
winds gusting 15-25kts. There is a risk for MVFR CIGS/VIS conditions
due to smoke from nearby burns.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Near seasonable daytime
temperatures on both days. Gusty southwest winds and low relative
humidity values will lead to Critical Fire Weather conditions north
of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday afternoon. Decreased wind speeds and
continued dry for Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Temperatures will warm slightly each
day. Generally northerly winds 10 to 20 mph each day, trending a bit
higher on Saturday. Mostly dry, but a chance of showers develops
over the eastern zones Saturday.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
Tuesday for AZZ004-005-009>015-039-040.

Red Flag Warning from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
Tuesday for AZZ109-110-112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/MCT
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff