Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 040337
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1037 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CIRRUS
AND MID-LVL CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
DECAYING SHOWER REACHING SIOUX CITY IN THE MORNING.

OTHERWISE..WITHOUT ANY GOOD FOCUSING MECHANISM...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE RAIN MENTION OUT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS OF TUESDAY.
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS TO THE COVERAGE OF ANY RAIN LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF ATTM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



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